{ "as_of": "2026-11-01", "source": "philly_land_tax_research scripts/philadelphia_council_one_pager.py", "model": { "tax_year": 2026, "ratio": 4.0, "land_surface": "S5 paired sales", "construction": "OPA total held fixed where there is a building: land = min(S5, total), building = total - land. On bare lots the cap is lifted and land = S5. On lots larger than the land sales can test, bare or built, S5 is first divided by its held-out ratio to sale price in the lot's size band; bare tracts judged use-restricted keep OPA's value.", "support_edge_sqft": 10000.0, "land_method": { "surface": "S5 paired-sales comparables (k=10)", "comparables": 10, "sales_since": 2020, "sales": 3666, "land_roll_generated": "2026-10-25" }, "bare_lots_beyond_support": 1653, "built_parcels_beyond_support": 38915, "large_tract_rule": { "rule": "S5's own value (rate x lot area, uncapped) divided by S5's held-out median ratio to price in the lot's size band beyond the support edge; the re-split then caps it at the parcel's total where there is a building", "edge_sqft": 10000.0, "band_factors": { "1 acre and over": 1.8768720003232686, "edge to 1 acre": 1.1704664488718337 }, "witnesses_beyond_edge": 138, "sources": { "factors": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/large_lot_relevel_meta.json (file dated 2026-10-25)", "per_parcel": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/large_lot_relevel_parcels.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "painted_lots": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/land_surfaces_ty2026.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)" }, "parcels_beyond_support": 44744, "factor_from": { "per_parcel_file": 42215, "painted_lot": 1686, "own_lot": 843, "none": 0 }, "per_parcel_band_agreement": 1.0, "parcels_by_band": { "1 acre and over": 19089, "edge to 1 acre": 25655 }, "keep_opa": { "source": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/reference/large_tract_review.csv (file dated 2026-09-29)", "judged_opa": 26, "on_this_roll": 25, "rule": "bare tracts beyond the edge judged use-restricted, or not a bare tract, keep OPA's value" }, "land_busd": { "export_beyond": 27.958985595150356, "surface_uncapped_beyond": 41.355584144085086, "relevelled_beyond": 25.610722598906026 } }, "opa_median_ratio_on_large_vacant_sales": 0.9448800947773115, "opa_large_vacant_ratio_basis": { "median_ratio": 0.9448800947773115, "sales": 85, "sales_not_on_this_roll": 0, "philly_open_avmkit_ratio_on_its_opa_roll": 0.8957483243706648, "basis": "median of TY2026 OPA land / time-adjusted sale price on philly_open_avmkit's held-out still-vacant (W1) land sales beyond the support edge (philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/holdout_predictions.csv); its own figure is the same statistic on its OPA roll (TY2027)" }, "horizon": "after today's 10-year abatements have expired", "homestead_order": "value_share", "homestead_rule": "in proportion to land and building value", "relief_rule": "long-running non-abatement relief kept, carried in dollars, and divided between land and building value share", "bare_lots_revalued": 30583, "built_parcels": 515731, "built_total_unchanged_pct": 100.0 }, "rates": { "current_rate_pct": 1.3998, "land_rate_pct": 3.129268893175481, "building_rate_pct": 0.7823172232938702, "building_rate_cut_pct": -44.112214366775945, "levy_busd": 2.418768217196188 }, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.19997681044192, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.37596694853226, "aggregate_change_musd": -39.062959517012594, "median_change_usd": -174.01517627187013, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "all_taxable": { "parcels": 545748, "pay_less_pct": 61.01607335253634, "aggregate_change_pct": 0.013277103480513475, "aggregate_change_musd": 0.32096681756067275, "median_change_usd": -129.58529520023433, "median_current_bill_usd": 2467.8474 }, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "cur": 497369950.97, "new": 510116395.16, "parcels": 28548, "change_pct": 2.56, "change_musd": 12.75, "pay_less_pct": 34.58, "median_change_pct": 16.96 }, "homes": { "cur": 1644086822.89, "new": 1605023863.37, "parcels": 483513, "change_pct": -2.38, "change_musd": -39.06, "pay_less_pct": 66.2, "median_change_pct": -10.74 }, "large multifamily": { "cur": 223689388.09, "new": 181509367.25, "parcels": 3689, "change_pct": -18.86, "change_musd": -42.18, "pay_less_pct": 53.92, "median_change_pct": -3.69 }, "vacant land": { "cur": 53622055.24, "new": 122118591.42, "parcels": 30762, "change_pct": 127.74, "change_musd": 68.5, "pay_less_pct": 4.62, "median_change_pct": 117.69 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -7.685150075455494, "pay_less_pct": 76.76716797390324, "median_change_usd": -161.31066846735075 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -6.441616722053867, "pay_less_pct": 74.1600642462453, "median_change_usd": -212.4242247302932 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -5.218845518098647, "pay_less_pct": 70.44377990430623, "median_change_usd": -253.19977675483074 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -1.9150236842541357, "pay_less_pct": 59.09830184166467, "median_change_usd": -164.57089571701204 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 2.798096093704472, "pay_less_pct": 46.933079911944084, "median_change_usd": 94.47147056119957 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 0.8113939723508379, "pay_less_pct": 52.1073114183986, "median_change_usd": -41.99381071755033 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.0945029907699633, "pay_less_pct": 51.96557146404038, "median_change_usd": -38.55967514309327 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.5509079411797679, "pay_less_pct": 60.41512231282431, "median_change_usd": -142.89497457485106 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -10.82710501966212, "pay_less_pct": 80.45599559384385, "median_change_usd": -234.2017877352631 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -16.59897105653424, "pay_less_pct": 86.28222523744911, "median_change_usd": -229.39414093644177 } } }, "worked_example": { "basis": "median land and median building value of taxable single-family homes", "house_land_usd": 30650.85355259235, "house_building_usd": 129135.6682667871, "house_land_share_pct": 19.182377339209914, "house_today_usd": 2236.6917324276737, "house_new_usd": 1969.3981999807568, "house_change_usd": -267.29353244691697, "lot_today_usd": 429.0506480291877, "lot_new_usd": 959.1476257140442, "lot_change_usd": 530.0969776848565, "median_sfr_change_usd": -165.23874434438454, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 26.254527326588434 }, "ratio_sweep": { "1.5:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.52380242496521, "aggregate_change_pct": -0.6952192019717196, "aggregate_change_musd": -11.430007289809943, "median_change_usd": -47.09798035195627, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 1.8543252689738545, "building_rate_pct": 1.2362168459825695, "vacant_change_pct": 36.17211098557118 }, "2:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.34656794540516, "aggregate_change_pct": -1.1711728076628236, "aggregate_change_musd": -19.255097804041625, "median_change_usd": -83.02731131402936, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 2.2153633939592536, "building_rate_pct": 1.1076816969796268, "vacant_change_pct": 62.10212992667139 }, "2.5:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.27637812230836, "aggregate_change_pct": -1.5574738349355965, "aggregate_change_musd": -25.606222090117456, "median_change_usd": -112.24017158794686, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 2.5083948930356956, "building_rate_pct": 1.0033579572142783, "vacant_change_pct": 83.1478638687541 }, "3:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.24097263632147, "aggregate_change_pct": -1.8772729033582625, "aggregate_change_musd": -30.863996433775664, "median_change_usd": -136.41537933819154, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 2.750980839764119, "building_rate_pct": 0.9169936132547063, "vacant_change_pct": 100.57056180063348 }, "4:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.19997681044192, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.37596694853226, "aggregate_change_musd": -39.062959517012594, "median_change_usd": -174.01517627187013, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 3.129268893175481, "building_rate_pct": 0.7823172232938702, "vacant_change_pct": 127.7394830621907 }, "5:1": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.18548333664613, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.7469359212145994, "aggregate_change_musd": -45.16201151388908, "median_change_usd": -202.04351984130528, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "land_rate_pct": 3.4106701489355222, "building_rate_pct": 0.6821340297871045, "vacant_change_pct": 147.94992452790106 } }, "large_tract_range": { "relevelled": { "bare_land_beyond_support_busd": 1.9958036837811355, "land_rate_pct": 3.129268893175481, "building_rate_pct": 0.7823172232938702, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_pct": 2.56, "change_musd": 12.75 }, "homes": { "change_pct": -2.38, "change_musd": -39.06 }, "large multifamily": { "change_pct": -18.86, "change_musd": -42.18 }, "vacant land": { "change_pct": 127.74, "change_musd": 68.5 } } }, "carry_opa": { "bare_land_beyond_support_busd": 1.893880995, "land_rate_pct": 3.1334006564574586, "building_rate_pct": 0.7833501641143646, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_pct": 2.52, "change_musd": 12.53 }, "homes": { "change_pct": -2.25, "change_musd": -36.95 }, "large multifamily": { "change_pct": -18.75, "change_musd": -41.94 }, "vacant land": { "change_pct": 123.74, "change_musd": 66.35 } } }, "opa_relevelled": { "bare_land_beyond_support_busd": 2.007503792815187, "land_rate_pct": 3.1287952888200303, "building_rate_pct": 0.7821988222050076, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_pct": 2.38, "change_musd": 11.85 }, "homes": { "change_pct": -2.39, "change_musd": -39.31 }, "large multifamily": { "change_pct": -18.87, "change_musd": -42.21 }, "vacant land": { "change_pct": 129.93, "change_musd": 69.67 } } }, "surface": { "bare_land_beyond_support_busd": 3.528576163743187, "land_rate_pct": 3.068421587348145, "building_rate_pct": 0.7671053968370363, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_pct": 0.75, "change_musd": 3.71 }, "homes": { "change_pct": -4.27, "change_musd": -70.27 }, "large multifamily": { "change_pct": -20.43, "change_musd": -45.71 }, "vacant land": { "change_pct": 209.38, "change_musd": 112.27 } } }, "reviewed": { "bare_land_beyond_support_busd": 2.156120619849972, "land_rate_pct": 3.122791935144656, "building_rate_pct": 0.780697983786164, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_pct": 2.17, "change_musd": 10.81 }, "homes": { "change_pct": -2.58, "change_musd": -42.39 }, "large multifamily": { "change_pct": -19.02, "change_musd": -42.56 }, "vacant land": { "change_pct": 138.25, "change_musd": 74.13 } }, "basis": { "source": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/large_tract_review.csv (file dated 2026-09-29)", "rule": "the review's hand judgements (basis_source 'hand') on bare tracts beyond the edge: an OPA-basis tract keeps this roll's OPA value, an S5-relevelled tract takes this export's S5 divided by the review's factor by band and use class (land_value_surface / s5_relevelled); every other bare tract beyond the edge carried at OPA. Built parcels keep the headline's land. The review's own dollars are on OPA's TY2027 roll, philly_open_avmkit's, and are not imported", "status": "a sensitivity: the headline relevels every bare tract beyond the edge by S5's band factor and keeps OPA's value only on the tracts the review judged use-restricted", "tracts_in_review": 1664, "hand_judged": 110, "bare_beyond_edge_here": 1479, "hand_judged_bare_beyond_edge_here": 103, "built_here_left_at_headline": 171, "not_on_this_roll": 14, "bare_beyond_edge_not_in_review": 174, "applied": { "rule tract, not hand-judged: OPA": 1257, "not in the review: OPA": 174, "OPA basis": 144, "S5 relevelled": 78 }, "review_totals_busd": { "land_carry_opa": 1.9829216, "land_reviewed_hand_only": 2.3695217413966816, "land_reviewed": 2.14875543912962, "land_surface": 3.822244175963532 } } } }, "quintile_edges": { "income_poorest_top": 39767.0, "income_richest_bottom": 97031.0, "nonwhite_whitest_top": 27.69, "nonwhite_most_bottom": 97.48 }, "transition": { "restored": { "never_behind_pct": 33.203182918993726, "behind_then_recoups_pct": 43.725596797311326, "never_recoups_pct": 23.071220283694952, "after_expiry_pay_less_pct": 75.98971976474077, "after_expiry_median_annual_usd": -779.6231531315034, "graduated_never_behind_pct": 80.34515819750719, "graduated_never_behind_pct_phase_in": 43.72003835091083 }, "basis": { "panel": "philadelphia_abatement_phase_in_value_share_rate_bare_relevelled_panel.parquet", "settings": { "homestead_order": "value_share", "baseline": "rate", "revalue_bare_lots": true, "large_tracts": "relevelled" }, "generated": "2026-10-27", "final_year_rate_gap_pct": { "land": -0.002468159431168182, "building": -0.002468159431168182 } }, "abated_parcels": 20233, "phase_in_years": 10, "reform_starts_tax_year": 2027, "never_behind_pct": 31.37448722384224, "behind_then_recoups_pct": 45.05510799189443, "never_recoups_pct": 23.57040478426333, "after_expiry_pay_less_pct": 75.98971976474077, "after_expiry_median_annual_usd": -779.6231531315034, "recoup_extra_while_abated_median_usd": 2033.4894200367125, "recoup_extra_while_abated_p90_usd": 11362.218223759122, "recoup_years_after_expiry_median": 1.7721416580780924, "recoup_years_after_expiry_p75": 6.167431973917196, "recoup_years_after_expiry_p90": 19.68635707518861, "recoup_whole_before_expiry_pct": 10.127020214501062, "abatements_ended_by_2031_pct": 46.64656748875599, "last_expiry_tax_year": 2036, "status_quo_cliff": { "parcels": 19977, "median_usd": 5177.748215999999, "median_pct": 399.9999999999999, "flat_schedule_pct": 94.8450551079919, "flat_median_usd": 5371.872479999999 } }, "package": { "basis": { "supply": "C:\\projects\\philly-lvt-housing-starts-forecast\\out\\reports\\abatement_package.json", "supply_run": "2026-10-30", "phase_in_tag": "_value_share_rate_bare_relevelled", "supply_rate_gap_pct": { "land": 0.0, "building": 0.0 } }, "abated": { "never_behind_pct": 33.203182918993726, "behind_then_recoups_pct": 43.725596797311326, "never_recoups_pct": 23.071220283694952, "after_expiry_pay_less_pct": 75.98971976474077, "after_expiry_median_annual_usd": -779.6231531315034, "graduated_never_behind_pct": 80.34515819750719, "graduated_never_behind_pct_phase_in": 43.72003835091083 }, "homes": { "horizon_years": 20, "net_units": 6291.484704011924, "per_year": 314.5742352005962, "baseline_annual_net_units": 2714.694428233002, "share_of_baseline": 0.11587832204206976, "calibration_years": [ 2023, 2025 ], "discount_rate_range": [ 3041.0562015031305, 12207.784809124047 ], "dispersion_span_range": [ 4186.232129593818, 10522.99292448279 ], "runner_up": 6381.96341978354, "end_at_enactment": 4930.677288425844, "replace_at_once": 5156.439561440378, "keep_abatement_at_once": 7700.832750944888, "by_start_year_first": 3713.1346231845678, "opa_rule_net_units": 4122.754775441402, "land_assessment_share": 0.34470876599089195, "land_assessment_alone": 313.3913091680835 }, "cost": { "glide_usd": 128535905.44196697, "glide_peak_usd": 11671326.737032892, "glide_last_tax_year": 2045, "graduated_alongside_usd": 196778927.28753665, "restoration_usd": 28853262.717454936, "restoration_last_tax_year": 2035, "restoration_max_bill_change_pct": 0.20646636199033175 } }, "idle_land": { "basis": { "vacant": "L&I Vacant Property Indicators (land)", "parking": "OPA building codes containing 'PKG LOT'", "taxable": "some taxable land or building value on the TY2026 roll", "area": "OPA total_area", "city_area": "Census 2020 Gazetteer, Philadelphia city", "unmatched_to_roll": { "vacant": 240, "parking": 11 } }, "vacant": { "parcels": 20182, "acres": 1144.9174012855833, "exempt_parcels": 8285, "exempt_acres": 599.1720385674931, "pay_more_pct": 96.60093152313944, "pay_more_acres": 1042.7872130394858, "median_change_pct": 114.60223401619562 }, "parking": { "parcels": 1551, "acres": 325.5276170798898, "exempt_parcels": 654, "exempt_acres": 348.44775022956844, "pay_more_pct": 85.17085751128303, "pay_more_acres": 238.2544306703398, "median_change_pct": 117.2386440246747 }, "total": { "parcels": 21733, "acres": 1470.445018365473, "exempt_parcels": 8939, "exempt_acres": 947.6197887970615, "pay_more_pct": 95.78521142962315, "pay_more_acres": 1281.0416437098256, "median_change_pct": 114.67178678562395 }, "pct_of_city_land": 1.7100615835512012, "pct_of_city_area": 1.6100928823081273, "square_side_ft": 8003.285887683884, "square_side_mi": 1.5157738423643718, "central_parks": 1.7443001404098137, "vacant_share_of_total": 0.7786196607053408 }, "homestead_comparison": { "basis": { "homes": "taxable 1-4-unit homes with a bill today", "homestead": "OPA records a Homestead Exemption and some value is exempt in the TY2026 assessment", "owner_occupied": "homestead, or an individual owner whose mailing address is the home (philadelphia_abatement_phase_in.owner_occupied)", "typical_home": "median land $48,746 and median building $187,212 (gross, before the exemption) of homestead-only single-family homes; not the same house as the median bill", "caveats": [ "formerly abated homes (the abatement bars the homestead) are not granted it once it expires", "every order but building_first needs 53 Pa.C.S. Sec. 8583(c) amended", "rates are re-solved revenue-neutral under each order", "`transition` is computed at the headline order only" ] }, "orders": { "building_first": { "rule": "off the building first, remainder off land (53 Pa.C.S. 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"median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 347.1442777901775 }, "two_to_four_units": { "parcels": 40107, "pay_less_pct": 66.09569401850051, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.737720145006219, "aggregate_change_musd": -13.662176338278412, "median_change_usd": -395.12582630762336, "median_current_bill_usd": 4409.37, "pay_more_pct": 33.90430598149949, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 1017.5502608662055, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 668.2905409515326 } }, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_musd": 12.75, "change_pct": 2.56, "pay_less_pct": 34.58 }, "homes": { "change_musd": -39.06, "change_pct": -2.38, "pay_less_pct": 66.2 }, "large multifamily": { "change_musd": -42.18, "change_pct": -18.86, "pay_less_pct": 53.92 }, "vacant land": { "change_musd": 68.5, "change_pct": 127.74, "pay_less_pct": 4.62 } }, "profile": { "all_homes": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -7.685150075455494, "pay_less_pct": 76.76716797390324, "median_change_usd": 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"most non-white": { "homes_pct": -16.59897105653424, "pay_less_pct": 86.28222523744911, "median_change_usd": -229.39414093644177 } } }, "homestead": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -4.501112856495071, "pay_less_pct": 79.8683449074074, "median_change_usd": -95.85371374636506 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -3.8497797101776365, "pay_less_pct": 75.25593552602918, "median_change_usd": -153.60005776082787 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.20675756866291, "pay_less_pct": 71.11352988500308, "median_change_usd": -200.39597484318756 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -0.1352503717234277, "pay_less_pct": 60.364721641247385, "median_change_usd": -143.40611144025166 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 7.671999299503707, "pay_less_pct": 46.09827640542047, "median_change_usd": 104.0964146331844 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 4.07160268253437, "pay_less_pct": 51.99842022116904, "median_change_usd": -32.65393853151454 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 5.300912758154275, "pay_less_pct": 49.97576753692817, "median_change_usd": 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"median_change_usd": 104.064961370525 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 2.4568980442206234, "pay_less_pct": 51.303249979636725, "median_change_usd": -24.998481137837643 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 3.812944256909301, "pay_less_pct": 50.12408009584117, "median_change_usd": -2.0438156648928043 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": 0.3880740253052739, "pay_less_pct": 61.03853228316748, "median_change_usd": -132.1168605399448 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.819327673568935, "pay_less_pct": 83.33656299454188, "median_change_usd": -226.8192619309565 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -18.26944990204652, "pay_less_pct": 89.71116187989556, "median_change_usd": -226.57898240127372 } } } }, "typical_home": { "with_homestead": { "today_usd": 1903.134429041952, "after_usd": 1722.808453725365, "change_usd": -180.3259753165869, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 26.31 }, "without_homestead": { "today_usd": 3302.9344290419517, "after_usd": 2989.974470336589, "change_usd": -312.9599587053626, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 26.31 } } }, "tax_share": { "rule": "in proportion to each line's share of the tax (land weighted 4:1)", "land_rate_pct": 3.2742452831151256, "building_rate_pct": 0.8185613207787814, "exemption_worth_usd": { "median_today": 1399.8, "median_after": 1917.1621168149445 }, "homes": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 71.95844099913867, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.649845469548741, "aggregate_change_musd": -76.44749664954401, "median_change_usd": -318.8503935580644, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384, "pay_more_pct": 28.041559000861326, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 591.2929372806691, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 503.93393488479626 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 216240, "pay_less_pct": 85.96698113207547, "aggregate_change_pct": -12.978809800646818, "aggregate_change_musd": -76.6651698051424, "median_change_usd": -505.6776509224603, "median_current_bill_usd": 2131.8954, "pay_more_pct": 14.033018867924529, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 789.5982966312813, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 578.9137245043338 }, "no_homestead": { "parcels": 266736, "pay_less_pct": 60.60186851418631, "aggregate_change_pct": 0.02066402394229616, "aggregate_change_musd": 0.2176731555981636, "median_change_usd": -135.3300659593474, "median_current_bill_usd": 2794.0008, "pay_more_pct": 39.398131485813686, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 546.7963974108761, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 413.6897549784321 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 330898, "pay_less_pct": 76.88048885154942, "aggregate_change_pct": -7.086857671682834, "aggregate_change_musd": -72.96952979970766, "median_change_usd": -401.7614612543366, "median_current_bill_usd": 2463.648, "pay_more_pct": 23.11951114845058, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 613.3283419252634, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 542.8769263926181 }, "not_owner_occupied": { "parcels": 152078, "pay_less_pct": 61.24883283578164, "aggregate_change_pct": -0.5660375064663992, "aggregate_change_musd": -3.4779668498364686, "median_change_usd": -136.30937922327462, "median_current_bill_usd": 2673.618, "pay_more_pct": 38.751167164218366, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 562.7497918419866, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 395.61190616408317 }, "single_family": { "parcels": 441761, "pay_less_pct": 72.79750815486203, "aggregate_change_pct": -5.335306845246468, "aggregate_change_musd": -72.29278878705811, "median_change_usd": -318.6431859494387, "median_current_bill_usd": 2411.8554, "pay_more_pct": 27.20249184513798, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 548.7130600139662, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 493.70803668085 }, "two_to_four_units": { "parcels": 40107, "pay_less_pct": 63.70708355149974, "aggregate_change_pct": -1.5008269864451251, "aggregate_change_musd": -4.327938821729064, "median_change_usd": -337.7198813243067, "median_current_bill_usd": 4409.37, "pay_more_pct": 36.292916448500264, "median_increase_of_those_paying_more_usd": 1146.740857436243, "median_saving_of_those_paying_less_usd": 646.8395283365958 } }, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "change_musd": 36.08, "change_pct": 7.25, "pay_less_pct": 30.69 }, "homes": { "change_musd": -76.45, "change_pct": -4.65, "pay_less_pct": 71.96 }, "large multifamily": { "change_musd": -33.78, "change_pct": -15.1, "pay_less_pct": 49.28 }, "vacant land": { "change_musd": 74.15, "change_pct": 138.29, "pay_less_pct": 3.99 } }, "profile": { "all_homes": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -8.402753458586876, "pay_less_pct": 77.98805497589409, "median_change_usd": -198.89433881127547 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -10.240084264367145, "pay_less_pct": 79.638974457323, "median_change_usd": -346.4182528158462 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -9.07731612015944, "pay_less_pct": 77.53349282296651, "median_change_usd": -455.4854345247279 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -5.4049113932822745, "pay_less_pct": 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-24.548793566457515, "pay_less_pct": 94.11348290132868, "median_change_usd": -498.12154809258425 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -19.998951096309312, "pay_less_pct": 90.57545785812313, "median_change_usd": -603.4842396046163 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -15.568325138804317, "pay_less_pct": 84.19382887222993, "median_change_usd": -612.0903678718105 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -0.5693324554445822, "pay_less_pct": 65.83355555016848, "median_change_usd": -467.81286550811365 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -6.296042871480944, "pay_less_pct": 73.65521327014218, "median_change_usd": -605.0095153731938 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -7.737121983979723, "pay_less_pct": 77.40902290494553, "median_change_usd": -572.411459417775 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -15.844528282268556, "pay_less_pct": 87.5985966309189, "median_change_usd": -527.6066058814149 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -31.971136924047972, "pay_less_pct": 96.96123395423916, "median_change_usd": -450.4599763964445 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -39.33551512787948, "pay_less_pct": 99.7301672962763, "median_change_usd": -417.9106103600561 } } }, "owner_occupied": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -13.751269658827514, "pay_less_pct": 85.83122239202797, "median_change_usd": -262.1386443287695 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -15.169098392047331, "pay_less_pct": 85.5819580369073, "median_change_usd": -415.00441696395 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -12.908287525226203, "pay_less_pct": 82.53738939142711, "median_change_usd": -530.6709141289726 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -8.29355793811163, "pay_less_pct": 73.39790516950106, "median_change_usd": -506.5869213157765 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 1.8806200660720362, "pay_less_pct": 57.11427656850192, "median_change_usd": -243.5390065936905 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -2.1923350474745584, "pay_less_pct": 64.1402622790584, "median_change_usd": -460.1613357075564 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -2.349110874546889, "pay_less_pct": 66.22026356323806, "median_change_usd": -415.3256923828833 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -7.4672794110813285, "pay_less_pct": 75.15288717005456, "median_change_usd": -413.0941856250031 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -20.136589199582822, "pay_less_pct": 89.70222523657269, "median_change_usd": -402.00275400241185 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -25.927898854685527, "pay_less_pct": 93.36977806788512, "median_change_usd": -359.205503758713 } } } }, "typical_home": { "with_homestead": { "today_usd": 1903.134429041952, "after_usd": 1112.8962936534876, "change_usd": -790.2381353884643, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 46.574000000000005 }, "without_homestead": { "today_usd": 3302.9344290419517, "after_usd": 3128.4974670871884, "change_usd": -174.43696195476332, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 23.67 } } } } }, "commercial_breakdown": { "basis": { "sector": "the 'commercial/mixed/other' property group, the flyer's 'Commercial' bar", "homestead_order": "value_share", "building_type": "OPA building_code_description, grouped by lvt.philadelphia.commercial_building_type (parking by building_code)", "zoning": "OPA zoning, grouped by lvt.philadelphia.zoning_family", "attributes": "analysis/ownership/philadelphia/opa_attributes.parquet, OPA's current properties table (file dated 2026-08-18); the cross-table omits cells under 10 parcels", "caveat": "S5 is fitted on small-lot land sales and values expensive land relatively low, so the cuts to towers and the increases on large lots are the model's least reliable figures" }, "coverage": { "parcels": 28548, "change_musd": 12.746444185756598, "described_pct": 99.83186212694409, "zoned_pct": 99.23287095418243, "other_tax_pct": 0.38193969628958596 }, "by_building_type": { "Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 3738, "today_musd": 87.15742590018002, "change_musd": 20.108691670733577, "change_pct": 23.071690636852573, "pay_more_pct": 84.02889245585875, "pay_less_pct": 15.971107544141253, "median_land_share_pct": 62.678268320322815 }, "Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 14605, "today_musd": 64.82648208486941, "change_musd": 17.384925371481078, "change_pct": 26.817628864575948, "pay_more_pct": 62.86888052036974, "pay_less_pct": 36.99418007531668, "median_land_share_pct": 32.96076162652702 }, "Stores and services": { "parcels": 2308, "today_musd": 29.95475945724, "change_musd": 8.995114464552485, "change_pct": 30.028999155853263, "pay_more_pct": 62.608318890814566, "pay_less_pct": 37.39168110918544, "median_land_share_pct": 35.28486349735247 }, "Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 1796, "today_musd": 14.044415786225999, "change_musd": 5.280831643573268, "change_pct": 37.60093494777064, "pay_more_pct": 86.08017817371937, "pay_less_pct": 13.919821826280623, "median_land_share_pct": 65.43172011665162 }, "Shopping centres and supermarkets": { "parcels": 323, "today_musd": 32.199809174028, "change_musd": 4.288591538255049, "change_pct": 13.318686191824325, "pay_more_pct": 50.464396284829725, "pay_less_pct": 49.53560371517028, "median_land_share_pct": 26.66170847976544 }, "Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 638, "today_musd": 8.011068180173998, "change_musd": 2.932745657685658, "change_pct": 36.60867179914526, "pay_more_pct": 75.54858934169279, "pay_less_pct": 24.45141065830721, "median_land_share_pct": 43.16298526302619 }, "Other": { "parcels": 239, "today_musd": 1.8996532801860002, "change_musd": 1.2772769440720653, "change_pct": 67.23737207176053, "pay_more_pct": 77.40585774058577, "pay_less_pct": 22.594142259414227, "median_land_share_pct": 65.1546876786491 }, "Parking garages": { "parcels": 93, "today_musd": 11.351925878598001, "change_musd": 0.44878740190341193, "change_pct": 3.9534032084328485, "pay_more_pct": 55.91397849462365, "pay_less_pct": 44.086021505376344, "median_land_share_pct": 30.720608562489815 }, "Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 636, "today_musd": 2.805287079444, "change_musd": 0.44245037191080056, "change_pct": 15.772017600369526, "pay_more_pct": 64.30817610062893, "pay_less_pct": 35.22012578616352, "median_land_share_pct": 34.44541676974924 }, "Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 1593, "today_musd": 38.764942395851996, "change_musd": -0.16513012762813956, "change_pct": -0.42597800337710323, "pay_more_pct": 65.34839924670433, "pay_less_pct": 34.65160075329567, "median_land_share_pct": 37.64736798733572 }, "Parking lots": { "parcels": 21, "today_musd": 2.9321533750980002, "change_musd": -0.9187101602121371, "change_pct": -31.332268223569017, "pay_more_pct": 61.904761904761905, "pay_less_pct": 38.095238095238095, "median_land_share_pct": 50.74201039647921 }, "Condominium units": { "parcels": 1429, "today_musd": 17.42654161836, "change_musd": -2.3460822237741836, "change_pct": -13.462695439825168, "pay_more_pct": 28.411476557032888, "pay_less_pct": 71.58852344296712, "median_land_share_pct": 10.111555032040833 }, "Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 181, "today_musd": 15.694410872964, "change_musd": -3.162031227973225, "change_pct": -20.147498708730126, "pay_more_pct": 48.61878453038674, "pay_less_pct": 51.38121546961326, "median_land_share_pct": 23.685900845540964 }, "Hotels": { "parcels": 99, "today_musd": 33.608688248832, "change_musd": -8.96578991693894, "change_pct": -26.677000454638478, "pay_more_pct": 21.21212121212121, "pay_less_pct": 78.78787878787878, "median_land_share_pct": 11.888111210091468 }, "Offices and banks": { "parcels": 849, "today_musd": 136.69238764201197, "change_musd": -32.85522722188418, "change_pct": -24.035886554216724, "pay_more_pct": 57.243816254416956, "pay_less_pct": 42.75618374558304, "median_land_share_pct": 32.19970985252506 } }, "by_zoning": { "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial": { "parcels": 14942, "today_musd": 76.03261093750986, "change_musd": 20.211172126789837, "change_pct": 26.58224132721303, "pay_more_pct": 64.32873778610629, "pay_less_pct": 35.557488957301565, "median_land_share_pct": 34.58509194707975 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX)": { "parcels": 3241, "today_musd": 98.597546835684, "change_musd": 14.561276942678452, "change_pct": 14.768396790789629, "pay_more_pct": 76.1801912989818, "pay_less_pct": 23.819808701018204, "median_land_share_pct": 50.23301176645207 }, "CMX-3 community commercial": { "parcels": 1532, "today_musd": 45.037599879894, "change_musd": 11.069798684599911, "change_pct": 24.57901556504072, "pay_more_pct": 77.54569190600522, "pay_less_pct": 22.45430809399478, "median_land_share_pct": 48.43598476255203 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial": { "parcels": 905, "today_musd": 37.294957935636, "change_musd": 5.187973413794431, "change_pct": 13.910656295008783, "pay_more_pct": 58.232044198895025, "pay_less_pct": 41.767955801104975, "median_land_share_pct": 30.687845600314684 }, "Residential zoning": { "parcels": 6195, "today_musd": 35.24527983510936, "change_musd": 4.735623301032083, "change_pct": 13.436191521778529, "pay_more_pct": 59.46731234866828, "pay_less_pct": 40.43583535108959, "median_land_share_pct": 32.56822902870511 }, "Unmatched": { "parcels": 219, "today_musd": 10.655306547863999, "change_musd": -0.780706738642308, "change_pct": -7.326928935693666, "pay_more_pct": 78.08219178082192, "pay_less_pct": 21.91780821917808, "median_land_share_pct": 67.85705600445938 }, "Special purpose (SP)": { "parcels": 60, "today_musd": 11.48150794023, "change_musd": -3.4651745590631498, "change_pct": -30.180483061127738, "pay_more_pct": 46.666666666666664, "pay_less_pct": 53.333333333333336, "median_land_share_pct": 19.95035593799414 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial": { "parcels": 688, "today_musd": 44.7529358645922, "change_musd": -4.3405366322164225, "change_pct": -9.698886896156889, "pay_more_pct": 74.56395348837209, "pay_less_pct": 25.436046511627907, "median_land_share_pct": 41.89979249632137 }, "CMX-5 Center City core": { "parcels": 766, "today_musd": 138.27220519754397, "change_musd": -34.43298235321625, "change_pct": -24.90231663263286, "pay_more_pct": 61.096605744125334, "pay_less_pct": 38.90339425587467, "median_land_share_pct": 35.70720850046533 } }, "by_zoning_and_building_type": { "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 2043, "today_musd": 71.974053885234, "change_musd": 13.285728186202004, "change_pct": 18.45905221260251, "pay_more_pct": 80.61674008810573, "pay_less_pct": 19.383259911894275, "median_land_share_pct": 53.38899229634821 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 10415, "today_musd": 39.22659706674185, "change_musd": 9.803011011415169, "change_pct": 24.990725029591253, "pay_more_pct": 62.80364858377341, "pay_less_pct": 37.0427268362938, "median_land_share_pct": 32.616834121545594 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Stores and services": { "parcels": 154, "today_musd": 4.0090118022, "change_musd": 2.916437268829327, "change_pct": 72.74703624541318, "pay_more_pct": 81.16883116883116, "pay_less_pct": 18.83116883116883, "median_land_share_pct": 47.31924996067553 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Stores and services": { "parcels": 1558, "today_musd": 10.2525467412, "change_musd": 2.558333841718003, "change_pct": 24.95315462876462, "pay_more_pct": 59.69191270860077, "pay_less_pct": 40.30808729139923, "median_land_share_pct": 32.385591490922735 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 118, "today_musd": 3.9425103277679994, "change_musd": 2.5472878479137604, "change_pct": 64.61080976687951, "pay_more_pct": 91.52542372881356, "pay_less_pct": 8.47457627118644, "median_land_share_pct": 100.0 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 664, "today_musd": 5.630438300748, "change_musd": 2.448223678729887, "change_pct": 43.48193778101859, "pay_more_pct": 79.51807228915662, "pay_less_pct": 20.481927710843372, "median_land_share_pct": 46.480857617538426 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 704, "today_musd": 3.9683126171999996, "change_musd": 2.1787436453931788, "change_pct": 54.903528415321205, "pay_more_pct": 87.64204545454545, "pay_less_pct": 12.357954545454545, "median_land_share_pct": 72.75120206793812 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Shopping centres and supermarkets": { "parcels": 155, "today_musd": 19.965842313288, "change_musd": 2.108292536363937, "change_pct": 10.559497081476943, "pay_more_pct": 45.806451612903224, "pay_less_pct": 54.19354838709678, "median_land_share_pct": 24.15174686024762 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 522, "today_musd": 3.135176321676, "change_musd": 2.0314877385433037, "change_pct": 64.79660249083894, "pay_more_pct": 89.65517241379311, "pay_less_pct": 10.344827586206897, "median_land_share_pct": 80.99097226720183 }, "Residential zoning | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 2775, "today_musd": 9.683300690163358, "change_musd": 2.0054219401309283, "change_pct": 20.71010706264762, "pay_more_pct": 53.69369369369369, "pay_less_pct": 46.16216216216216, "median_land_share_pct": 27.95701054900082 }, "Residential zoning | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 948, "today_musd": 3.403962082224, "change_musd": 1.7472871562973982, "change_pct": 51.33098178214131, "pay_more_pct": 87.44725738396625, "pay_less_pct": 12.552742616033754, "median_land_share_pct": 65.80570516263013 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Shopping centres and supermarkets": { "parcels": 37, "today_musd": 3.4119373307400003, "change_musd": 1.7282383784491984, "change_pct": 50.65269994494206, "pay_more_pct": 67.56756756756756, "pay_less_pct": 32.432432432432435, "median_land_share_pct": 52.44712294203408 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Stores and services": { "parcels": 196, "today_musd": 7.129665730800001, "change_musd": 1.398241818851906, "change_pct": 19.611604129090242, "pay_more_pct": 52.04081632653062, "pay_less_pct": 47.95918367346938, "median_land_share_pct": 26.86683390260345 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 209, "today_musd": 4.44398782389, "change_musd": 1.3923825403760677, "change_pct": 31.33182617852586, "pay_more_pct": 96.17224880382776, "pay_less_pct": 3.827751196172249, "median_land_share_pct": 45.78441516550986 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 528, "today_musd": 5.173576630026, "change_musd": 1.2906406779394621, "change_pct": 24.946778026809202, "pay_more_pct": 87.68939393939394, "pay_less_pct": 12.31060606060606, "median_land_share_pct": 66.28173093710397 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 279, "today_musd": 3.9579768565482, "change_musd": 1.2310718653715933, "change_pct": 31.103564017431506, "pay_more_pct": 95.6989247311828, "pay_less_pct": 4.301075268817205, "median_land_share_pct": 44.42455121521647 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 559, "today_musd": 4.060036079976, "change_musd": 1.1396475900011813, "change_pct": 28.06988823626211, "pay_more_pct": 63.864042933810374, "pay_less_pct": 36.135957066189626, "median_land_share_pct": 32.167394726696145 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Stores and services": { "parcels": 121, "today_musd": 4.925312203439999, "change_musd": 1.1224212718042015, "change_pct": 22.788835010707853, "pay_more_pct": 94.21487603305785, "pay_less_pct": 5.785123966942149, "median_land_share_pct": 50.09400805178964 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 307, "today_musd": 2.8109369801999997, "change_musd": 0.8994841574459344, "change_pct": 31.999442313428727, "pay_more_pct": 74.2671009771987, "pay_less_pct": 25.732899022801302, "median_land_share_pct": 38.32561613446017 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 158, "today_musd": 3.0068207928, "change_musd": 0.8893273378734484, "change_pct": 29.576998403196875, "pay_more_pct": 78.48101265822784, "pay_less_pct": 21.518987341772153, "median_land_share_pct": 49.70616399051083 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 88, "today_musd": 1.3185626069999998, "change_musd": 0.8501802464933086, "change_pct": 64.47780651293024, "pay_more_pct": 88.63636363636364, "pay_less_pct": 11.363636363636363, "median_land_share_pct": 69.46703326632795 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 256, "today_musd": 5.346800312249999, "change_musd": 0.8431121588710951, "change_pct": 15.768536500969565, "pay_more_pct": 58.59375, "pay_less_pct": 41.40625, "median_land_share_pct": 33.81978678013596 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 80, "today_musd": 4.0100521615560005, "change_musd": 0.7122621584392015, "change_pct": 17.76191754480383, "pay_more_pct": 68.75, "pay_less_pct": 31.25, "median_land_share_pct": 60.882462312685604 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Stores and services": { "parcels": 44, "today_musd": 0.9096908256, "change_musd": 0.5822802185338609, "change_pct": 64.00858425166697, "pay_more_pct": 95.45454545454545, "pay_less_pct": 4.545454545454546, "median_land_share_pct": 85.7559826534326 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 86, "today_musd": 1.4069977716000002, "change_musd": 0.4911790197816134, "change_pct": 34.909722651732245, "pay_more_pct": 69.76744186046511, "pay_less_pct": 30.23255813953488, "median_land_share_pct": 37.06997212783754 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Shopping centres and supermarkets": { "parcels": 84, "today_musd": 3.4437277686, "change_musd": 0.43027882409971385, "change_pct": 12.494565569990957, "pay_more_pct": 50.0, "pay_less_pct": 50.0, "median_land_share_pct": 26.68303712011937 }, "Residential zoning | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 140, "today_musd": 2.7900987875100003, "change_musd": 0.4276409278217648, "change_pct": 15.32708912444669, "pay_more_pct": 72.14285714285714, "pay_less_pct": 27.857142857142858, "median_land_share_pct": 41.36380148581437 }, "Residential zoning | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 342, "today_musd": 0.9976444589999998, "change_musd": 0.38923292762314377, "change_pct": 39.015194652942384, "pay_more_pct": 82.45614035087719, "pay_less_pct": 17.543859649122805, "median_land_share_pct": 53.59713457030031 }, "Unmatched | Condominium units": { "parcels": 49, "today_musd": 0.4185206027999999, "change_musd": 0.38872623478895485, "change_pct": 92.88102716766775, "pay_more_pct": 95.91836734693877, "pay_less_pct": 4.081632653061225, "median_land_share_pct": 100.0 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 26, "today_musd": 1.4417550715619998, "change_musd": 0.36650499864069447, "change_pct": 25.4207532104342, "pay_more_pct": 80.76923076923077, "pay_less_pct": 19.230769230769234, "median_land_share_pct": 49.57295196723713 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 41, "today_musd": 2.57509433682, "change_musd": 0.3559169197425057, "change_pct": 13.821509940565125, "pay_more_pct": 75.60975609756098, "pay_less_pct": 24.390243902439025, "median_land_share_pct": 70.01414636187813 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 45, "today_musd": 1.0174348314000001, "change_musd": 0.33518601768007733, "change_pct": 32.9442247636498, "pay_more_pct": 100.0, "pay_less_pct": 0.0, "median_land_share_pct": 45.357962468006114 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Other": { "parcels": 33, "today_musd": 0.362195842344, "change_musd": 0.32798346668301565, "change_pct": 90.55417769580833, "pay_more_pct": 90.9090909090909, "pay_less_pct": 9.090909090909092, "median_land_share_pct": 86.01286563288116 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 99, "today_musd": 0.7137902154, "change_musd": 0.3144120745754429, "change_pct": 44.0482466405413, "pay_more_pct": 64.64646464646465, "pay_less_pct": 35.35353535353536, "median_land_share_pct": 37.8957948173905 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 37, "today_musd": 0.654542462574, "change_musd": 0.31372170118374676, "change_pct": 47.92992343843218, "pay_more_pct": 94.5945945945946, "pay_less_pct": 5.405405405405405, "median_land_share_pct": 56.50212680366435 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Shopping centres and supermarkets": { "parcels": 30, "today_musd": 2.5730549682, "change_musd": 0.3027866314020475, "change_pct": 11.767592808709582, "pay_more_pct": 50.0, "pay_less_pct": 50.0, "median_land_share_pct": 25.998980772627622 }, "Residential zoning | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 700, "today_musd": 12.470216118023998, "change_musd": 0.28965880756076856, "change_pct": 2.3228050325616145, "pay_more_pct": 66.0, "pay_less_pct": 34.0, "median_land_share_pct": 40.68792774329585 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 39, "today_musd": 0.674367648, "change_musd": 0.28673848070781405, "change_pct": 42.51960804439625, "pay_more_pct": 89.74358974358975, "pay_less_pct": 10.256410256410255, "median_land_share_pct": 62.34029862624973 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Condominium units": { "parcels": 129, "today_musd": 1.2761906609999998, "change_musd": 0.27662744914104204, "change_pct": 21.676028323564278, "pay_more_pct": 71.31782945736434, "pay_less_pct": 28.68217054263566, "median_land_share_pct": 37.37226341885116 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 124, "today_musd": 11.515690174356, "change_musd": 0.2604632207891361, "change_pct": 2.2618116399932164, "pay_more_pct": 69.35483870967742, "pay_less_pct": 30.64516129032258, "median_land_share_pct": 38.44325677533776 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 114, "today_musd": 3.09723856413, "change_musd": 0.25011735347099756, "change_pct": 8.075495261090904, "pay_more_pct": 70.17543859649122, "pay_less_pct": 29.82456140350877, "median_land_share_pct": 43.34289980742555 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 10, "today_musd": 0.18024804659999996, "change_musd": 0.2197583738010465, "change_pct": 121.91997524873402, "pay_more_pct": 100.0, "pay_less_pct": 0.0, "median_land_share_pct": 100.0 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Stores and services": { "parcels": 100, "today_musd": 1.6913713409999995, "change_musd": 0.1911943249114982, "change_pct": 11.30410101417809, "pay_more_pct": 59.0, "pay_less_pct": 41.0, "median_land_share_pct": 31.861788324961637 }, "Unmatched | Other": { "parcels": 21, "today_musd": 0.15453512039999995, "change_musd": 0.18935957155294264, "change_pct": 122.53497526180635, "pay_more_pct": 80.95238095238095, "pay_less_pct": 19.047619047619047, "median_land_share_pct": 100.0 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 205, "today_musd": 0.937940315382, "change_musd": 0.16713404386473021, "change_pct": 17.819262177323168, "pay_more_pct": 53.170731707317074, "pay_less_pct": 46.34146341463415, "median_land_share_pct": 27.5585716859864 }, "Unmatched | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 40, "today_musd": 0.887419825626, "change_musd": 0.129723022727409, "change_pct": 14.61799916808264, "pay_more_pct": 80.0, "pay_less_pct": 20.0, "median_land_share_pct": 77.39949122838142 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 33, "today_musd": 2.2930375764, "change_musd": 0.12915868704686853, "change_pct": 5.632645900624267, "pay_more_pct": 90.9090909090909, "pay_less_pct": 9.090909090909092, "median_land_share_pct": 90.7029028760432 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 13, "today_musd": 0.1650952116, "change_musd": 0.12804017367734366, "change_pct": 77.55535271826362, "pay_more_pct": 76.92307692307693, "pay_less_pct": 23.076923076923077, "median_land_share_pct": 42.38334111500956 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Warehouses, factories, other industrial": { "parcels": 25, "today_musd": 0.902040680634, "change_musd": 0.12198230409315071, "change_pct": 13.52292714863097, "pay_more_pct": 80.0, "pay_less_pct": 20.0, "median_land_share_pct": 86.546370704593 }, "Residential zoning | Stores and services": { "parcels": 128, "today_musd": 0.7513888433999999, "change_musd": 0.12013220938855716, "change_pct": 15.988021441064305, "pay_more_pct": 52.34375, "pay_less_pct": 47.65625, "median_land_share_pct": 28.372667503810113 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Other": { "parcels": 13, "today_musd": 0.1893705432, "change_musd": 0.10993517983217818, "change_pct": 58.05294634238458, "pay_more_pct": 76.92307692307693, "pay_less_pct": 23.076923076923077, "median_land_share_pct": 86.55293658028981 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 54, "today_musd": 1.453273647816, "change_musd": 0.10805308199012281, "change_pct": 7.435150437944471, "pay_more_pct": 57.407407407407405, "pay_less_pct": 42.592592592592595, "median_land_share_pct": 27.244166494109876 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 119, "today_musd": 0.8825836985999997, "change_musd": 0.10121511373171617, "change_pct": 11.468047041008056, "pay_more_pct": 52.10084033613446, "pay_less_pct": 47.89915966386555, "median_land_share_pct": 27.181245392482378 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Other": { "parcels": 55, "today_musd": 0.18670946740800007, "change_musd": 0.0993127845946674, "change_pct": 53.191081295115936, "pay_more_pct": 74.54545454545455, "pay_less_pct": 25.454545454545453, "median_land_share_pct": 56.862940630728964 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Condominium units": { "parcels": 108, "today_musd": 1.2629233565999998, "change_musd": 0.09503155528260719, "change_pct": 7.524728621572718, "pay_more_pct": 41.66666666666667, "pay_less_pct": 58.333333333333336, "median_land_share_pct": 25.422178024395205 }, "Residential zoning | Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 381, "today_musd": 1.2358632488819998, "change_musd": 0.09192487560495595, "change_pct": 7.438110623332639, "pay_more_pct": 69.29133858267717, "pay_less_pct": 30.183727034120732, "median_land_share_pct": 37.253500961095824 }, "Residential zoning | Other": { "parcels": 92, "today_musd": 0.5437904965439999, "change_musd": 0.08741451969158823, "change_pct": 16.0750362956215, "pay_more_pct": 75.0, "pay_less_pct": 25.0, "median_land_share_pct": 57.87462074716429 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 30, "today_musd": 0.6595052854980001, "change_musd": 0.0816624976057911, "change_pct": 12.382387131913063, "pay_more_pct": 53.333333333333336, "pay_less_pct": 46.666666666666664, "median_land_share_pct": 30.096063281481953 }, "Unmatched | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 13, "today_musd": 0.088125402858, "change_musd": 0.05343528472171629, "change_pct": 60.63550688990178, "pay_more_pct": 84.61538461538461, "pay_less_pct": 15.384615384615385, "median_land_share_pct": 60.18898865106951 }, "Special purpose (SP) | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 12, "today_musd": 0.13554698737799997, "change_musd": 0.04488137264771451, "change_pct": 33.11130222507555, "pay_more_pct": 100.0, "pay_less_pct": 0.0, "median_land_share_pct": 53.30924822216468 }, "Unmatched | Storefronts with offices or apartments": { "parcels": 33, "today_musd": 0.15226044540000003, "change_musd": 0.044305774502563476, "change_pct": 29.0986765381966, "pay_more_pct": 51.515151515151516, "pay_less_pct": 48.484848484848484, "median_land_share_pct": 28.56661245571026 }, "Unmatched | Gas stations and auto businesses": { "parcels": 15, "today_musd": 0.0434455926, "change_musd": 0.026390200235173026, "change_pct": 60.74310109691778, "pay_more_pct": 100.0, "pay_less_pct": 0.0, "median_land_share_pct": 100.0 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Condominium units": { "parcels": 197, "today_musd": 0.9071277917999999, "change_musd": 0.0205693312698695, "change_pct": 2.267522994643789, "pay_more_pct": 46.7005076142132, "pay_less_pct": 53.299492385786806, "median_land_share_pct": 23.02898418033448 }, "Residential zoning | Parking garages": { "parcels": 12, "today_musd": 0.5383546812, "change_musd": 0.019913043806882302, "change_pct": 3.6988707449326697, "pay_more_pct": 75.0, "pay_less_pct": 25.0, "median_land_share_pct": 61.84556469887826 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 30, "today_musd": 0.5793660216, "change_musd": 0.01717569141239997, "change_pct": 2.9645665731253823, "pay_more_pct": 46.666666666666664, "pay_less_pct": 53.333333333333336, "median_land_share_pct": 25.019202504542903 }, "Residential zoning | Restaurants and bars": { "parcels": 41, "today_musd": 0.1958922114, "change_musd": 0.014981018142218454, "change_pct": 7.647582328645086, "pay_more_pct": 46.34146341463415, "pay_less_pct": 53.65853658536586, "median_land_share_pct": 23.426224219950253 }, "Unmatched | Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 12, "today_musd": 0.08952014958, "change_musd": 0.014069478555404727, "change_pct": 15.716549426485816, "pay_more_pct": 58.333333333333336, "pay_less_pct": 41.66666666666667, "median_land_share_pct": 36.34235261258586 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Houses and apartments in commercial categories": { "parcels": 17, "today_musd": 0.29510583599999995, "change_musd": 0.0005042463279885846, "change_pct": 0.17086965639969698, "pay_more_pct": 64.70588235294117, "pay_less_pct": 35.294117647058826, "median_land_share_pct": 38.33240122212055 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Parking garages": { "parcels": 15, "today_musd": 1.037836734426, "change_musd": -0.002743958403775795, "change_pct": -0.2643921064610977, "pay_more_pct": 46.666666666666664, "pay_less_pct": 53.333333333333336, "median_land_share_pct": 17.052127141690605 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Parking garages": { "parcels": 15, "today_musd": 1.9687566608639997, "change_musd": -0.0047003379411593525, "change_pct": -0.23874651624525844, "pay_more_pct": 60.0, "pay_less_pct": 40.0, "median_land_share_pct": 31.70785345249606 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Parking garages": { "parcels": 28, "today_musd": 4.852725042516001, "change_musd": -0.018566010539023018, "change_pct": -0.38258937764580336, "pay_more_pct": 46.42857142857143, "pay_less_pct": 53.57142857142857, "median_land_share_pct": 21.730768729300507 }, "CMX-1/2/2.5 neighborhood commercial | Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 66, "today_musd": 0.6317269404000001, "change_musd": -0.05182136081413942, "change_pct": -8.203126620075274, "pay_more_pct": 42.42424242424242, "pay_less_pct": 57.57575757575758, "median_land_share_pct": 22.865069406984013 }, "Residential zoning | Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 26, "today_musd": 0.368892345564, "change_musd": -0.0648778337150991, "change_pct": -17.58719976038193, "pay_more_pct": 53.84615384615385, "pay_less_pct": 46.15384615384615, "median_land_share_pct": 32.52622326814113 }, "Residential zoning | Hotels": { "parcels": 12, "today_musd": 0.918051831, "change_musd": -0.20141518321818394, "change_pct": -21.939413050218516, "pay_more_pct": 50.0, "pay_less_pct": 50.0, "median_land_share_pct": 33.314386984228854 }, "Residential zoning | Condominium units": { "parcels": 588, "today_musd": 1.0507080774, "change_musd": -0.22797340563923837, "change_pct": -21.697121259728334, "pay_more_pct": 11.224489795918368, "pay_less_pct": 88.77551020408163, "median_land_share_pct": 0.0 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 23, "today_musd": 2.5384211166, "change_musd": -0.3091283765423811, "change_pct": -12.177978449707838, "pay_more_pct": 65.21739130434783, "pay_less_pct": 34.78260869565217, "median_land_share_pct": 33.844384482264736 }, "CA-1/2 auto-oriented commercial | Condominium units": { "parcels": 92, "today_musd": 1.7643303168, "change_musd": -0.34798917162700105, "change_pct": -19.723583974805546, "pay_more_pct": 34.78260869565217, "pay_less_pct": 65.21739130434783, "median_land_share_pct": 16.12468473509583 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 39, "today_musd": 5.2709650973999995, "change_musd": -0.3858826670026908, "change_pct": -7.320911064143354, "pay_more_pct": 43.58974358974359, "pay_less_pct": 56.41025641025641, "median_land_share_pct": 22.2025071652489 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Condominium units": { "parcels": 112, "today_musd": 2.9850483035999997, "change_musd": -0.6578058328020298, "change_pct": -22.03668972487678, "pay_more_pct": 14.285714285714285, "pay_less_pct": 85.71428571428571, "median_land_share_pct": 10.290521407275437 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Land coded vacant, air rights": { "parcels": 15, "today_musd": 2.6809963457999997, "change_musd": -0.7150341552921049, "change_pct": -26.670463628652985, "pay_more_pct": 40.0, "pay_less_pct": 60.0, "median_land_share_pct": 10.026646946909757 }, "Industrial (I-1/2/3, I-P, ICMX, IRMX) | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 69, "today_musd": 4.715044675949999, "change_musd": -0.7641303018651239, "change_pct": -16.206215516105683, "pay_more_pct": 31.88405797101449, "pay_less_pct": 68.11594202898551, "median_land_share_pct": 20.742730545608747 }, "CMX-3 community commercial | Hotels": { "parcels": 29, "today_musd": 5.0124150384, "change_musd": -0.8846047808713172, "change_pct": -17.648274815520672, "pay_more_pct": 31.03448275862069, "pay_less_pct": 68.96551724137932, "median_land_share_pct": 13.655525681910632 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Hotels": { "parcels": 11, "today_musd": 4.063913358, "change_musd": -0.9237353471346084, "change_pct": -22.73019293869031, "pay_more_pct": 27.27272727272727, "pay_less_pct": 72.72727272727273, "median_land_share_pct": 15.303317934090895 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Condominium units": { "parcels": 154, "today_musd": 7.76169250836, "change_musd": -1.8932683841883877, "change_pct": -24.39246829411468, "pay_more_pct": 10.38961038961039, "pay_less_pct": 89.6103896103896, "median_land_share_pct": 12.057203414856268 }, "Special purpose (SP) | Health, schools, worship, entertainment": { "parcels": 30, "today_musd": 10.362919375427998, "change_musd": -3.4143357378109953, "change_pct": -32.94762425641258, "pay_more_pct": 26.666666666666668, "pay_less_pct": 73.33333333333333, "median_land_share_pct": 9.761641613999677 }, "CMX-4 Center City commercial | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 85, "today_musd": 22.659339391014, "change_musd": -5.096670410460583, "change_pct": -22.49258163493405, "pay_more_pct": 61.1764705882353, "pay_less_pct": 38.82352941176471, "median_land_share_pct": 34.03548704586935 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Hotels": { "parcels": 38, "today_musd": 21.285919307916, "change_musd": -6.341098110572437, "change_pct": -29.79010687226581, "pay_more_pct": 7.894736842105263, "pay_less_pct": 92.10526315789474, "median_land_share_pct": 9.379164399814359 }, "CMX-5 Center City core | Offices and banks": { "parcels": 110, "today_musd": 87.45442383184198, "change_musd": -28.749643123771595, "change_pct": -32.87385802123812, "pay_more_pct": 32.72727272727273, "pay_less_pct": 67.27272727272727, "median_land_share_pct": 15.165710882155386 } } }, "typical_rowhouse": { "basis": "median gross land and median gross building of 210,208 homestead-only single-family homes", "homestead_order": "value_share", "land_usd": 48745.68026726258, "building_usd": 187211.91574945065, "value_usd": 235957.59601671324, "land_share_pct": 20.658661170547713, "homestead_exemption_usd": 100000.0, "with_homestead": { "today_usd": 1903.134429041952, "after_usd": 1722.808453725365, "change_usd": -180.3259753165869, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 26.31, "change_pct": -9.475209557706544 }, "without_homestead": { "today_usd": 3302.9344290419517, "after_usd": 2989.974470336589, "change_usd": -312.9599587053626, "pays_less_below_land_share_pct": 26.31, "change_pct": -9.475209557706531 }, "empty_lot": { "today_usd": 682.3420323811415, "after_usd": 1525.3834093702264, "change_usd": 843.0413769890849, "change_pct": 123.55114253289621 } }, "districts": { "basis": { "homestead_order": "value_share", "boundaries": "https://services.arcgis.com/fLeGjb7u4uXqeF9q/arcgis/rest/services/Council_Districts_2024/FeatureServer/0/query?where=1%3D1&outFields=district_num&outSR=4326&f=geojson (cached 2026-09-30), joined to OPA parcel points", "homes": "taxable 1-4-unit homes with a bill today", "unmatched_homes_pct": 0.0002070496256542768 }, "districts": { "1": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 58262, "pay_less_pct": 33.941505612577664, "aggregate_change_pct": 6.389211721009258, "median_change_usd": 200.31280506896746, "median_current_bill_usd": 3484.1022 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 21945, "pay_less_pct": 29.35064935064935, "aggregate_change_pct": 10.510882667080335, "median_change_usd": 231.56698008049602, "median_current_bill_usd": 2939.58 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 38782, "pay_less_pct": 31.36506626785622, "aggregate_change_pct": 7.283842299526344, "median_change_usd": 215.9930649125747, "median_current_bill_usd": 3269.9327999999996 } }, "2": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 56707, "pay_less_pct": 43.81293314758319, "aggregate_change_pct": 3.0666303522228766, "median_change_usd": 126.47950474376034, "median_current_bill_usd": 2578.4316 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 22361, "pay_less_pct": 40.29336791735611, "aggregate_change_pct": 7.411974404943855, "median_change_usd": 134.32588078178833, "median_current_bill_usd": 1961.1197999999997 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 37254, "pay_less_pct": 42.23170666237183, "aggregate_change_pct": 3.8207427827621654, "median_change_usd": 128.40004808133477, "median_current_bill_usd": 2462.2481999999995 } }, "3": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 37340, "pay_less_pct": 59.43224424209963, "aggregate_change_pct": 2.5526382290656846, "median_change_usd": -42.380265099054725, "median_current_bill_usd": 1731.5525999999998 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 14218, "pay_less_pct": 64.79110986073991, "aggregate_change_pct": 3.6320927816962723, "median_change_usd": -30.72115488657778, "median_current_bill_usd": 838.4802 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 21706, "pay_less_pct": 63.097760987745325, "aggregate_change_pct": 2.2603623846361387, "median_change_usd": -38.75522789710078, "median_current_bill_usd": 1454.3922 } }, "4": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 49040, "pay_less_pct": 65.43637846655791, "aggregate_change_pct": 3.735558479677925, "median_change_usd": -130.57484363297502, "median_current_bill_usd": 2415.3549000000003 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 23762, "pay_less_pct": 62.368487501052094, "aggregate_change_pct": 12.75270958251733, "median_change_usd": -77.73550654314909, "median_current_bill_usd": 2199.0858 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 35042, "pay_less_pct": 64.10022259003482, "aggregate_change_pct": 7.892001367323509, "median_change_usd": -111.06957576257696, "median_current_bill_usd": 2474.8464 } }, "5": { "all_homes": { "parcels": 41739, "pay_less_pct": 50.29109465967081, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.0371880139383625, "median_change_usd": -2.4783916812575875, "median_current_bill_usd": 3103.3565999999996 }, "homestead": { "parcels": 11625, "pay_less_pct": 41.70322580645161, "aggregate_change_pct": 5.246457550733785, "median_change_usd": 92.97641639558105, "median_current_bill_usd": 3149.55 }, "owner_occupied": { "parcels": 22701, "pay_less_pct": 46.51777454737677, "aggregate_change_pct": 3.3087441683050667, "median_change_usd": 36.99256615562422, "median_current_bill_usd": 3253.1351999999997 } }, "6": { 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"median_current_bill_usd": 3334.3235999999997 } } } }, "progressivity_robustness": { "basis": { "surface": "FHFA tract land share of single-family property value, applied to each single-family house's own total (condominium units keep S5); S5 everywhere else (cities/philadelphia/data/fhfa_land_share_by_tract.csv)", "homestead_order": "value_share", "single_family_matched_pct": 95.92556678000221 }, "rates": { "land_rate_pct": 3.191537224745458, "building_rate_pct": 0.7978843061863645 }, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 72.03422116212815, "aggregate_change_pct": -3.360856626717057, "aggregate_change_musd": -55.25540093604112, "median_change_usd": -84.12806250399399, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -6.524692397616272, "pay_less_pct": 84.35273800100741, "median_change_usd": -106.75556641268008 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -5.791037249969522, "pay_less_pct": 87.43961931702405, "median_change_usd": -121.23235937324489 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -4.400656199413477, "pay_less_pct": 75.91746411483254, "median_change_usd": -102.0332303900384 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -3.1171564146463937, "pay_less_pct": 60.437694331499635, "median_change_usd": -60.79049447389502 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -0.6661398178863798, "pay_less_pct": 44.102539426674205, "median_change_usd": 49.80375379807083 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -1.5218950792742603, "pay_less_pct": 48.9339239877453, "median_change_usd": 8.324433238647998 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -1.8597780847180445, "pay_less_pct": 58.98576512455516, "median_change_usd": -43.24207148013693 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.0376895430295314, "pay_less_pct": 69.58034758257145, "median_change_usd": -104.92551265350494 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -7.577709669937461, "pay_less_pct": 88.5647777696952, "median_change_usd": -116.08282071016242 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -9.602916221495006, "pay_less_pct": 94.70827679782904, "median_change_usd": -120.41368465888195 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": { "compare": "poorest minus richest, aggregate % change of homes", "s5": -10.483246169159965, "fhfa": -5.858552579729892, "fhfa_over_s5": 0.5588490897948021, "s5_tract_smoothed": -10.890753103384053, "tract_smoothed_over_s5": 1.0388722088223883, "fhfa_over_tract_smoothed": 0.5379382421138057 }, "min_q": { "compare": "most non-white minus whitest, aggregate % change of homes", "s5": -17.410365028885078, "fhfa": -8.081021142220745, "fhfa_over_s5": 0.46415001229518943, "s5_tract_smoothed": -16.954834041907983, "tract_smoothed_over_s5": 0.9738356440992859, "fhfa_over_tract_smoothed": 0.47662048016787084 } }, "s5_tract_smoothed": { "basis": "S5's value-weighted land share of the same single-family homes' totals, one share per 2020 tract, applied to each matched home's own total; S5 everywhere else. FHFA's form with S5's land, so fhfa_over_tract_smoothed compares the two land estimates and nothing else", "rates": { "land_rate_pct": 3.1216119509555647, "building_rate_pct": 0.7804029877388912 }, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 61.96146392367322, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.2548581413952107, "aggregate_change_musd": -37.07182557751465, "median_change_usd": -118.10193455367192, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -7.963193152729708, "pay_less_pct": 78.07200594852605, "median_change_usd": -143.88495837341918 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -6.523721929413462, "pay_less_pct": 74.0689688237903, "median_change_usd": -178.9876907880946 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -4.7144630635763685, "pay_less_pct": 65.1555023923445, "median_change_usd": -213.26178180079808 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -1.8278650484663372, "pay_less_pct": 50.36354939009806, "median_change_usd": -18.37140971710405 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 2.927559950654346, "pay_less_pct": 35.80940466022688, "median_change_usd": 323.6375321444157 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 0.5921321040841088, "pay_less_pct": 43.996853523225965, "median_change_usd": 89.13676838359379 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.6763392390809484, "pay_less_pct": 38.325540014896966, "median_change_usd": 106.65071460167292 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.3344342722650495, "pay_less_pct": 53.59937402190923, "median_change_usd": -59.085131736247234 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.341746300420198, "pay_less_pct": 83.57563728190046, "median_change_usd": -226.99562961368974 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -16.362701937823875, "pay_less_pct": 90.96649619037679, "median_change_usd": -205.70153441802245 } } } } }, "opa_land_values": { "basis": { "surface": "OPA's own land values (taxable plus exempt land) on every parcel", "homestead_order": "value_share" }, "rates": { "land_rate_pct": 3.366427536912956, "building_rate_pct": 0.841606884228239 }, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 99.20327304048234, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.908104249037526, "aggregate_change_musd": -80.6934952120726, "median_change_usd": -98.31393572870775, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -3.7534418462947694, "pay_less_pct": 98.77071790074596, "median_change_usd": -55.7307475408536 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -3.413905825823871, "pay_less_pct": 99.22688753311199, "median_change_usd": -81.28066045356627 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -4.3163620377198235, "pay_less_pct": 99.40789473684211, "median_change_usd": -102.83839947366778 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -4.589086542487375, "pay_less_pct": 99.41760344415212, "median_change_usd": -122.21375009914073 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -6.450301018109494, "pay_less_pct": 99.14349986166079, "median_change_usd": -195.01811132508828 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -6.230341435098219, "pay_less_pct": 99.29411277635174, "median_change_usd": -156.81259050177277 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 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"philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land, philly_open_avmkit's land outputs; mechanisms in its CLAUDE.md and audits/*2026-09-29.md", "homestead_order": "value_share" }, "large_lots": { "raw_surface_on_built": { "basis": { "rule": "built parcels beyond the edge take S5's own extrapolated value, not relevelled, capped at the parcel's total; bare lots as the headline", "status": "a sensitivity: how much of the headline the relevel of built parcels carries", "land_beyond_edge_busd": { "headline": 12.01096696432808, "reading": 16.426137263255338 } }, "land_rate_pct": 3.014206197808448, "building_rate_pct": 0.753551549452112, "taxable_land_busd": 49.34259026607322, "break_even_land_share_pct": 28.586783523868124, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 70.17864241701452, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.714686725507611, "aggregate_change_musd": -77.51354319455933, "median_change_usd": -231.51160784896467, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, 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50.83905736866797, "median_change_usd": -22.40183745920058 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -1.5130526291882163, "pay_less_pct": 56.50616875051752, "median_change_usd": -135.89323387963577 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -0.6090645239701709, "pay_less_pct": 57.3046842671522, "median_change_usd": -129.17095186019912 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.1303626390225103, "pay_less_pct": 65.06053867062022, "median_change_usd": -213.46485508468209 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -13.815015076053383, "pay_less_pct": 83.10800278502323, "median_change_usd": -278.1353154380706 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -19.555378086204357, "pay_less_pct": 89.07629683749086, "median_change_usd": -272.13037865258696 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -11.698227569515918, "min_q": -18.04232545701614 } }, "opa_relevelled": { "basis": { "rule": "OPA's own land divided by 0.945, its median ratio to price on held-out still-vacant land sales beyond the edge (on this roll), on built parcels (capped at the total) and bare lots beyond the edge alike", "status": "a sensitivity: the least dispersed estimator on the held-out sales beyond the edge, not significantly, and derived from the assessor's own figure", "land_beyond_edge_busd": { "headline": 19.25879678066692, "reading": 21.39592898570813 } }, "land_rate_pct": 3.065621089872779, "building_rate_pct": 0.7664052724681948, "taxable_land_busd": 47.544243853697736, "break_even_land_share_pct": 27.548293758991175, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 70.13661134300669, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.124312305695388, "aggregate_change_musd": -67.80727515272021, "median_change_usd": -219.5147049403202, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 70.95958194598595, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 39.31, "change_musd": 29.84, "change_pct": 6.0 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 70.14, "change_musd": -67.81, "change_pct": -4.12 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 46.38, "change_musd": -29.21, "change_pct": 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"homes_pct": -2.6651847456164113, "pay_less_pct": 64.70430771765093, "median_change_usd": -199.140247986531 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -12.64081635226091, "pay_less_pct": 82.30886738924856, "median_change_usd": -260.85033241563735 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -18.036297876221475, "pay_less_pct": 87.99707754931636, "median_change_usd": -253.4544249928815 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -8.921256222302375, "min_q": -17.098697723575373 } }, "pool_aware": { "basis": { "rule": "as the headline, except parcels priced from S5's citywide comparable pool (S5 equal to its use-class-blind form) take the edge-to-acre factor in both bands; class-pool parcels keep their band's", "status": "a sensitivity: 40 of the 50 acre-plus sales behind the acre-plus factor are industrial, and the class pools' flat size elasticity is the over-valuation's mechanism", "citywide_pool_parcels_beyond_edge": 26747, "land_beyond_edge_busd": { "headline": 19.25879678066692, "reading": 20.871945865114416 } }, "land_rate_pct": 3.109227452392004, "building_rate_pct": 0.777306863098001, "taxable_land_busd": 46.047982349444474, "break_even_land_share_pct": 26.69443975750739, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 66.93148313787849, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.605792884147018, "aggregate_change_musd": -42.84149744003582, "median_change_usd": -183.88420477286672, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 67.033388827229, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 34.96, "change_musd": 13.44, "change_pct": 2.7 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 66.93, "change_musd": -42.84, "change_pct": -2.61 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 53.84, "change_musd": -40.37, "change_pct": -18.05 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 4.63, "change_musd": 69.77, "change_pct": 130.11 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -7.9507169855567605, "pay_less_pct": 77.36321987959032, "median_change_usd": -167.8982293580334 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -6.714129325281948, "pay_less_pct": 74.81810881108487, "median_change_usd": -221.51052230413484 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -5.609214702007681, "pay_less_pct": 71.1255980861244, "median_change_usd": -265.9411603871732 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -2.285592406756065, "pay_less_pct": 60.09447500597943, "median_change_usd": -176.66200276339453 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 2.8418884482043882, "pay_less_pct": 47.62718184989595, "median_change_usd": 70.16505132172733 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 0.5114180212562491, "pay_less_pct": 53.05539455162705, "median_change_usd": -58.24660232681208 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.1516593497422845, "pay_less_pct": 52.81076719357776, "median_change_usd": -55.58248592702748 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.8078913883511896, "pay_less_pct": 61.21303846470637, "median_change_usd": -154.92465954656313 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.292695144715026, "pay_less_pct": 80.92986521734612, "median_change_usd": -241.75237326692945 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -17.09337217547625, "pay_less_pct": 86.83331593779356, "median_change_usd": -236.8656221460169 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -10.79260543376115, "min_q": -17.604790196732502 } } }, "surfaces": { "basis": { "source": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/land_surfaces_ty2026.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "tilts": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/equity_tilt.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "construction": "each surface's $/sqft x the export's lot area where the parcel is in philly_open_avmkit's universe (for s0_opa, this roll's own OPA land there), the headline's land elsewhere; beyond the support edge each surface divided by its own held-out median ratio in the lot's size band where it has 25 or more held-out sales there (relevel_beyond_edge says which); the headline's within-total re-split, bare-lot rule, use-restricted tracts, homestead order and revenue-neutral solve", "held_out_tilt": "median held-out ratio (surface / land sale price) in the low fifth over the high fifth, block-group fifths, held-out folds; interval resamples gma2 market areas. Above 1, the surface over-values the poorer or more non-white fifth's land relative to the other's", "s5_row": "rebuilt from the surface file; must reproduce the headline" }, "surfaces": { "s0_opa": { "land_rate_pct": 3.360992617303804, "building_rate_pct": 0.840248154325951, "taxable_land_busd": 38.35497395204744, "break_even_land_share_pct": 22.19788058219232, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 99.00533359835686, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.864889185752186, "aggregate_change_musd": -79.98300205109524, "median_change_usd": -102.1076425236356, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 99.8413799482057, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 81.49, "change_musd": 28.05, "change_pct": 5.64 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 99.01, "change_musd": -79.98, "change_pct": -4.86 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 40.99, "change_musd": -21.67, "change_pct": -9.69 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 0.15, "change_musd": 73.6, "change_pct": 137.26 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -3.8354469847386663, "pay_less_pct": 98.71555011873066, "median_change_usd": -58.00689187316652 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -3.415065066412948, "pay_less_pct": 99.09743614330748, "median_change_usd": -84.48950344467949 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -4.262355877051849, "pay_less_pct": 99.18899521531101, "median_change_usd": -106.81689353530601 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -4.539690218029325, "pay_less_pct": 99.21191102607033, "median_change_usd": -126.87276254971539 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -6.592688496666755, "pay_less_pct": 98.73209108734618, "median_change_usd": -202.1653757833683 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -6.074133753446487, "pay_less_pct": 98.82421131075598, "median_change_usd": -162.624234230002 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -4.987677759122677, "pay_less_pct": 98.91583216088719, "median_change_usd": -154.9066568074254 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.922541540924196, "pay_less_pct": 99.04661889465449, "median_change_usd": -103.54811930367578 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -3.7415896928412518, "pay_less_pct": 99.00549730330773, "median_change_usd": -66.20652892878161 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -3.738857808285434, "pay_less_pct": 99.2349441603173, "median_change_usd": -57.951488920088195 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": 2.7572415119280884, "min_q": 2.335275945161053 }, "relevel_beyond_edge": null, "homes_covered_pct": 99.68507751937985, "label": "S0 OPA (this model's TY2026 OPA land, not relevelled)", "held_out_tilt": { "income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.196407750873965, "ci_cluster": [ 1.0844517969149112, 1.359487773908331 ], "n_low": 316, "n_high": 1216 }, "race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.270428160296252, "ci_cluster": [ 1.0673178961584695, 1.502879227178143 ], "n_low": 272, "n_high": 1126 }, "roll": "OPA's TY2027 land, philly_open_avmkit's roll; the bills in this row use TY2026" } }, "s2_k20": { "land_rate_pct": 3.189059093903579, "building_rate_pct": 0.7972647734758948, "taxable_land_busd": 43.43975697102716, "break_even_land_share_pct": 25.19176592142605, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 70.19479228781555, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.006253651830061, "aggregate_change_musd": -65.86628838124037, "median_change_usd": -226.95203052959084, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 71.49001109877914, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 38.3, "change_musd": 26.11, "change_pct": 5.25 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 70.19, "change_musd": -65.87, "change_pct": -4.01 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 51.12, "change_musd": -33.72, "change_pct": -15.07 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 4.19, "change_musd": 73.47, "change_pct": 137.02 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -7.611305116302658, "pay_less_pct": 77.05140198124295, "median_change_usd": -149.84439154150994 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -8.780976759025682, "pay_less_pct": 78.69445876134198, "median_change_usd": -256.83969402585194 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -6.248966769397269, "pay_less_pct": 72.65789473684211, "median_change_usd": -308.5182976714553 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -3.2896661413026718, "pay_less_pct": 63.20377900023918, "median_change_usd": -261.7101950368667 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 0.9709119759118146, "pay_less_pct": 55.032539787559095, "median_change_usd": -144.55039585335544 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -2.2183295025362093, "pay_less_pct": 59.27796638237973, "median_change_usd": -230.17297826948243 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -1.2825708694103155, "pay_less_pct": 61.62583795415046, "median_change_usd": -249.05936932839063 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.9447060521614703, "pay_less_pct": 63.63046701260193, "median_change_usd": -207.82474415267455 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -10.206612541532845, "pay_less_pct": 79.87612881771608, "median_change_usd": -237.03882129193562 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -15.879222672289906, "pay_less_pct": 86.64126917858262, "median_change_usd": -217.09326562563058 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -8.582217092214472, "min_q": -13.660893169753697 }, "relevel_beyond_edge": { "held_out": { "edge to 1 acre": 1.0387458819864523, "1 acre and over": 1.8876281265908765, "sales": { "edge to 1 acre": 96, "1 acre and over": 42 } }, "applied": { "edge to 1 acre": 1.0387458819864523, "1 acre and over": 1.8876281265908765 }, "scored_as": "s2_k20" }, "homes_covered_pct": 99.68507751937985, "label": "S2 interpolation (k=20)", "held_out_tilt": { "income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.1073425427077388, "ci_cluster": [ 1.0087918278276935, 1.2160882816906604 ], "n_low": 323, "n_high": 1240 }, "race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.16199051551579, "ci_cluster": [ 1.0357963977957956, 1.3611408407308991 ], "n_low": 277, "n_high": 1138 } } }, "s3": { "land_rate_pct": 3.121021271831478, "building_rate_pct": 0.7802553179578695, "taxable_land_busd": 45.486777242307966, "break_even_land_share_pct": 26.46760480332855, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 64.9814897634665, "aggregate_change_pct": -4.325140980490183, "aggregate_change_musd": -71.10907293160368, "median_change_usd": -168.13982163698597, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 64.97733999260082, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 32.67, "change_musd": 23.8, "change_pct": 4.78 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 64.98, "change_musd": -71.11, "change_pct": -4.33 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 67.55, "change_musd": -38.88, "change_pct": -17.38 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 3.74, "change_musd": 86.19, "change_pct": 160.73 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -9.829128858966252, "pay_less_pct": 72.88263654026049, "median_change_usd": -148.5885558063909 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -8.84578339900518, "pay_less_pct": 74.29910462788717, "median_change_usd": -224.9074136889235 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -6.342564944963202, "pay_less_pct": 69.43062200956938, "median_change_usd": -261.26258120542025 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -2.1900082611243876, "pay_less_pct": 57.45156661085865, "median_change_usd": -117.85730065359166 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -1.1051257649598467, "pay_less_pct": 47.71860602196586, "median_change_usd": 60.47559474244372 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -2.4214123086633066, "pay_less_pct": 51.166473461952464, "median_change_usd": -24.902759848940605 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -0.41937289859047544, "pay_less_pct": 52.38765207316064, "median_change_usd": -38.34331456288851 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -4.6345652894117855, "pay_less_pct": 62.9396260604563, "median_change_usd": -216.71164392649644 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.087803507274785, "pay_less_pct": 75.99476249363497, "median_change_usd": -229.56564444117237 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -15.364280521448947, "pay_less_pct": 82.91827575409665, "median_change_usd": -212.6207925275795 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -8.724003094006406, "min_q": -12.94286821278564 }, "relevel_beyond_edge": { "held_out": { "edge to 1 acre": 0.6959127039343649, "1 acre and over": 0.5593027896447063, "sales": { "edge to 1 acre": 96, "1 acre and over": 42 } }, "applied": { "edge to 1 acre": 0.6959127039343649, "1 acre and over": 0.5593027896447063 }, "scored_as": "s3" }, "homes_covered_pct": 99.68507751937985, "label": "S3 schedule", "held_out_tilt": { "income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.1088861650755508, "ci_cluster": [ 1.0257886701447796, 1.1997895747813814 ], "n_low": 323, "n_high": 1240 }, "race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.2093748046555692, "ci_cluster": [ 1.061082197602776, 1.484239377106585 ], "n_low": 277, "n_high": 1138 } } }, "s4_kolbe": { "land_rate_pct": 3.4365929414566176, "building_rate_pct": 0.8591482353641544, "taxable_land_busd": 36.20508872886752, "break_even_land_share_pct": 20.976270154617637, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 51.52740508845161, "aggregate_change_pct": -5.773263411644091, "aggregate_change_musd": -94.91746300150251, "median_change_usd": -7.214922316504612, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 52.13975212726601, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 29.08, "change_musd": 39.7, "change_pct": 7.98 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 51.53, "change_musd": -94.92, "change_pct": -5.77 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 44.29, "change_musd": -24.35, "change_pct": -10.89 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 4.23, "change_musd": 79.58, "change_pct": 148.4 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": 1.7757315508767801, "pay_less_pct": 27.376412175289634, "median_change_usd": 59.44085010714758 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.1448799269399235, "pay_less_pct": 44.0805954763931, "median_change_usd": 16.03901123113735 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.9939462189127806, "pay_less_pct": 55.307416267942585, "median_change_usd": -22.92000231924669 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -7.104089126320535, "pay_less_pct": 65.01315474766803, "median_change_usd": -109.47715104993449 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": -12.332979632332675, "pay_less_pct": 74.47461174800611, "median_change_usd": -398.59019506581035 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": -11.667950545018691, "pay_less_pct": 74.72675333278131, "median_change_usd": -245.97603662319852 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -8.089774024748886, "pay_less_pct": 68.57878838036912, "median_change_usd": -166.40514457376003 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -3.7597461988107206, "pay_less_pct": 56.89090684457623, "median_change_usd": -29.466863100318392 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": 3.9219664128200993, "pay_less_pct": 31.144457492024237, "median_change_usd": 46.51138734023482 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": 5.348218485674638, "pay_less_pct": 25.74365932574888, "median_change_usd": 51.89512655299154 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": 14.108711183209454, "min_q": 17.01616903069333 }, "relevel_beyond_edge": { "held_out": { "edge to 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{ "whitest": { "homes_pct": -1.6506092697011199, "pay_less_pct": 55.84892771383622, "median_change_usd": -125.95910611127283 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -1.0273187093380876, "pay_less_pct": 55.49222047504758, "median_change_usd": -106.15674305890707 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.14766465370550375, "pay_less_pct": 59.857675434079624, "median_change_usd": -134.15532063697037 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -7.497141683949327, "pay_less_pct": 76.7973032575137, "median_change_usd": -162.34811012064114 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -10.345363485839432, "pay_less_pct": 77.90565873223471, "median_change_usd": -110.76456811878177 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -4.745546956915348, "min_q": -8.694754216138312 }, "opa_ratio_by_fifth": { "Q2": { "sales": 2251, "median_ratio": 1.0513828168185295 }, "Q3": { "sales": 2526, "median_ratio": 1.114446519619532 }, "Q4": { "sales": 2396, "median_ratio": 1.2179542779096795 }, "most non-white": { "sales": 2470, "median_ratio": 1.3503018698319953 }, "whitest": { "sales": 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-6.642782041538897, "pay_less_pct": 74.01622936868475, "median_change_usd": -219.05210538937854 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -5.358746697549166, "pay_less_pct": 70.24760765550239, "median_change_usd": -260.79718123797585 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -1.908332412890168, "pay_less_pct": 58.84836163597226, "median_change_usd": -167.69957595116512 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 2.9839021070949157, "pay_less_pct": 46.786320056779225, "median_change_usd": 104.30449966227752 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 0.9198242394450107, "pay_less_pct": 51.91272667053076, "median_change_usd": -39.44314895536752 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.2077405622797022, "pay_less_pct": 51.71004717371513, "median_change_usd": -35.623050613122814 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.5138027745161033, "pay_less_pct": 60.2318589901985, "median_change_usd": -146.33073626884425 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.268172396408605, "pay_less_pct": 80.33648900019745, "median_change_usd": -242.00571261943185 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -17.181115385749134, "pay_less_pct": 86.1569773510072, "median_change_usd": -237.1011231855125 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -10.984069055091627, "min_q": -18.100939625194144 } }, "benchmark": { "scale": { "ratio": 0.8848061177366263, "scale": 1.1301911005747167, "source": "philly_open_avmkit/audits/time_index_registration_2026-10-27_results/posthoc.json (file dated 2026-10-27)", "reading": "the same, over S5's own random-fold level on still-vacant lots; post hoc in that test" }, "land_rate_pct": 2.9674517423675324, "building_rate_pct": 0.7418629355918831, "taxable_land_busd": 50.8604909800989, "break_even_land_share_pct": 29.562381982020824, "homes": { "parcels": 482976, "pay_less_pct": 65.88112038693434, "aggregate_change_pct": -2.4222600575242947, "aggregate_change_musd": -39.824058421856165, "median_change_usd": -181.38366550025353, "median_current_bill_usd": 2530.8384 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": 65.91518682944876, "by_property_group": { "commercial/mixed/other": { "pay_less_pct": 34.29, "change_musd": 7.8, "change_pct": 1.57 }, "homes": { "pay_less_pct": 65.88, "change_musd": -39.82, "change_pct": -2.42 }, "large multifamily": { "pay_less_pct": 53.48, "change_musd": -44.89, "change_pct": -20.07 }, "vacant land": { "pay_less_pct": 3.72, "change_musd": 76.92, "change_pct": 143.45 } }, "homes_profile": { "inc_q": { "poorest": { "homes_pct": -8.20300152413026, "pay_less_pct": 76.54409824662397, "median_change_usd": -169.22123998732627 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": -6.762984846075637, "pay_less_pct": 73.88198348296156, "median_change_usd": -222.93052060842274 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -5.440823650507321, "pay_less_pct": 70.1244019138756, "median_change_usd": -264.8875609983313 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -1.8909640773830172, "pay_less_pct": 58.65462807940685, "median_change_usd": -168.51477865605625 }, "richest": { "homes_pct": 3.111680111793791, "pay_less_pct": 46.632342503819366, "median_change_usd": 112.13005118438969 } }, "min_q": { "whitest": { "homes_pct": 0.9972260489521156, "pay_less_pct": 51.726422124699845, "median_change_usd": -36.77833307381849 }, "Q2": { "homes_pct": 1.2922155616926112, "pay_less_pct": 51.54142183232641, "median_change_usd": -32.050607227439286 }, "Q3": { "homes_pct": -0.47668801712020814, "pay_less_pct": 60.065068775224454, "median_change_usd": -147.74983312588438 }, "Q4": { "homes_pct": -11.55479708554864, "pay_less_pct": 80.26582423178044, "median_change_usd": -246.96290315949955 }, "most non-white": { "homes_pct": -17.55514849710008, "pay_less_pct": 86.08182861914206, "median_change_usd": -242.111746473047 } } }, "spread": { "inc_q": -11.31468163592405, "min_q": -18.552374546052196 } } }, "error_band": { "basis": { "errors": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/fne_error_by_distance.csv (file dated 2026-09-29)", "witnesses": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/witnesses.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "noise_floor": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/noise_floor_measured.json (file dated 2026-09-29)", "distance_check": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/fne_homes_by_distance.csv (file dated 2026-09-29)", "model": "per parcel, log(S5 / true land) ~ Normal(log median held-out ratio, 1.4826 x MAD) of the parcel's bin of distance to the nearest witness; the witness bins are by distance to the nearest witness in the other folds, as S5 saw it when it priced that witness. Berkson form (the truth scattered around S5, which spreads land shares and shifts the centre of the draws away from the headline); independent across parcels, so a shock shared by a neighbourhood is not modelled here (held_out_equity tests that); S5's own values only, perturbed before the re-split's cap and after the relevel beyond the support edge; everything else is the headline's", "band": "per metric: the headline and every model's 5th to 95th percentile of draws, low to high", "draws_per_model": 100, "seed": 20260929, "s5_held_out_error_by_bin": { "0-10": { "n": 665, "median_ratio": 1.0, "log_spread": 0.388078090664923 }, "10-20": { "n": 434, "median_ratio": 1.0315909725303294, "log_spread": 0.4407536157408892 }, "20-40": { "n": 752, "median_ratio": 1.031633548961855, "log_spread": 0.50428661224252 }, "40-80": { "n": 858, "median_ratio": 1.0489763315798064, "log_spread": 0.5183054964102555 }, "80-160": { "n": 665, "median_ratio": 1.036369975459977, "log_spread": 0.5153182596693885 }, "160-320": { "n": 319, "median_ratio": 0.9986130613692438, "log_spread": 0.5745224113387348 }, ">320": { "n": 184, "median_ratio": 1.090924466576172, "log_spread": 0.9291750275898568 } }, "homes_beyond_far_bin_pct": { "here": 38.691777645266015, "philly_open_avmkit": 35.724816027930444 }, "parcels_without_location": 0 }, "homes_by_district": { "1": { "homes": 58262, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 19.07761491194947 }, "2": { "homes": 56707, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 27.335249616449467 }, "3": { "homes": 37340, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 6.657739689341189 }, "4": { "homes": 49040, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 29.814437194127244 }, "5": { "homes": 41739, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 13.201082920050792 }, "6": { "homes": 49690, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 66.5787884886295 }, "7": { "homes": 46972, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 31.46981180277612 }, "8": { "homes": 45554, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 23.238354480396893 }, "9": { "homes": 50264, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 77.16059207385007 }, "10": { "homes": 47407, "beyond_far_bin_pct": 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"p5": 66.59849102773246, "p50": 67.02691680261012, "p95": 67.61337683523655 }, "district_5_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 50.29109465967081, "p5": 56.810896284050884, "p50": 57.218668391672054, "p95": 57.67303960324875 }, "district_6_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 84.59247333467499, "p5": 74.76403702958342, "p50": 75.19118534916481, "p95": 75.71292010464882 }, "district_7_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 87.8821425530103, "p5": 82.03589372392064, "p50": 82.41292685003833, "p95": 82.76388060972495 }, "district_8_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 84.60288887913245, "p5": 81.11428195109102, "p50": 81.4714404882118, "p95": 81.82135487553234 }, "district_9_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 93.08451376730861, "p5": 82.90157965939838, "p50": 83.23949546395033, "p95": 83.53105602419227 }, "district_10_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 65.80251861539436, "p5": 64.43795220115173, "p50": 64.99989453034362, "p95": 65.63471639209399 } }, "direction_held_pct": { "homes_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "income_gradient": 100.0, "race_gradient": 100.0, "commercial_majority_pay_more": 100.0, "apartments_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "vacant_majority_pay_more": 100.0, "district_1_majority_pay_less": 1.0, "district_2_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_3_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_4_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_5_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_6_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_7_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_8_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_9_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_10_majority_pay_less": 100.0 } }, "net_of_noise_neighbour_pairs": { "sigma_noise": 0.375, "log_error_sd_by_bin": { "0-10": 0.0999, "10-20": 0.2316, "20-40": 0.3372, "40-80": 0.3578, "80-160": 0.3535, "160-320": 0.4353, ">320": 0.8501 }, "quantiles": { "homes_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 66.19997681044192, "p5": 66.78264551447691, "p50": 67.05312479295037, "p95": 67.558626101504 }, "homes_change_musd": { "headline": -39.062959517012615, "p5": -44.46370282002891, "p50": -36.69937845810826, "p95": -32.023288956332564 }, "homestead_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 66.22780244173141, "p5": 66.79659174990752, "p50": 67.07385312615612, "p95": 67.57556418793932 }, "poorest_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 76.76716797390324, "p5": 75.41759612386366, "p50": 75.72377731404859, "p95": 76.27743397855652 }, "most_non_white_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 86.28222523744911, "p5": 82.06189333055005, "p50": 82.31030163865985, "p95": 82.74308527293603 }, "income_spread": { "headline": -10.483246169159965, "p5": -11.78520833203375, "p50": -11.375361094158999, "p95": -11.031310904191809 }, "race_spread": { "headline": -17.410365028885078, "p5": -18.149701527377697, "p50": -17.7615684943151, "p95": -17.396109321553144 }, "apartments_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 53.91705069124424, "p5": 58.11737598265112, "p50": 58.79642179452426, "p95": 59.75874220656004 }, "commercial_pay_more_pct": { "headline": 65.41630148992112, "p5": 58.70885188431201, "p50": 59.239263803680984, "p95": 59.61086765994742 }, "vacant_pay_more_pct": { "headline": 95.37646019436536, "p5": 89.15807728804685, "p50": 89.40152481921403, "p95": 89.64055495566244 }, "district_1_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 33.941505612577664, "p5": 47.0679859943016, "p50": 47.45202705022142, "p95": 48.35252823452679 }, "district_2_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 43.81293314758319, "p5": 52.15608302325992, "p50": 52.53319695981096, "p95": 53.044068633502036 }, "district_3_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 59.43224424209963, "p5": 62.28521692554901, "p50": 62.758435993572576, "p95": 63.543251205141935 }, "district_4_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 65.43637846655791, "p5": 66.7989396411093, "p50": 67.09115008156607, "p95": 67.67964926590538 }, "district_5_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 50.29109465967081, "p5": 56.33759792999353, "p50": 56.64965619684228, "p95": 57.23316322863509 }, "district_6_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 84.59247333467499, "p5": 75.03904206077682, "p50": 75.38740189172871, "p95": 75.83628496679412 }, "district_7_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 87.8821425530103, "p5": 82.66318232138296, "p50": 82.92919185897982, "p95": 83.32123392659457 }, "district_8_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 84.60288887913245, "p5": 81.76395047635773, "p50": 82.06304605523115, "p95": 82.49989024015454 }, "district_9_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 93.08451376730861, "p5": 83.16608308133058, "p50": 83.43247652395353, "p95": 83.77586344103135 }, "district_10_pay_less_pct": { "headline": 65.80251861539436, "p5": 64.26666947919082, "p50": 64.74782205159576, "p95": 65.21083384310333 } }, "direction_held_pct": { "homes_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "income_gradient": 100.0, "race_gradient": 100.0, "commercial_majority_pay_more": 100.0, "apartments_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "vacant_majority_pay_more": 100.0, "district_1_majority_pay_less": 0.0, "district_2_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_3_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_4_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_5_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_6_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_7_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_8_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_9_majority_pay_less": 100.0, "district_10_majority_pay_less": 100.0 } } } }, "held_out_equity": { "basis": { "tilt": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/equity_tilt.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "reconciliation": "philly_open_avmkit/notebooks/pipeline/data/us-pa-philadelphia/out/land/fhfa_reconciliation.csv (file dated 2026-10-25)", "read": "tilt = median held-out ratio in the low fifth over the high fifth; 1 is no tilt", "opa_roll": "philly_open_avmkit's OPA figures (its S0 OPA surface, and the OPA-total terms of the reconciliation) are on OPA's TY2027 roll; this model's bills, and land_robustness.opa_tilt_relevel, are on TY2026" }, "s5_held_out_tilt": { "all | bg | income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.0290998269680316, "ci_cluster": [ 0.9590140579688552, 1.1105125925448298 ], "n_low": 323, "n_high": 1240 }, "all | bg | race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.1221820319598392, "ci_cluster": [ 0.9932623397922062, 1.2151309694433348 ], "n_low": 277, "n_high": 1138 }, "all | tract | income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.0316759938042923, "ci_cluster": [ 0.9971449982768884, 1.0831143371226262 ], "n_low": 435, "n_high": 1800 }, "all | tract | race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.071745865696533, "ci_cluster": [ 0.981637397901235, 1.1766359405413915 ], "n_low": 257, "n_high": 857 }, "W1 still vacant | bg | income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 0.9852987484611742, "ci_cluster": [ 0.8848933555504489, 1.158395862207361 ], "n_low": 172, "n_high": 947 }, "W1 still vacant | bg | race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.0450519831216163, "ci_cluster": [ 0.92041849147153, 1.303562041392341 ], "n_low": 153, "n_high": 908 }, "W1b/W2 built on or torn down | bg | income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.0073970100879437, "ci_cluster": [ 0.9000033794503528, 1.072087353258841 ], "n_low": 151, "n_high": 293 }, "W1b/W2 built on or torn down | bg | race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.0088718460440786, "ci_cluster": [ 0.7990530090223854, 1.0889599132340178 ], "n_low": 124, "n_high": 230 }, "far (> 320 m from another witness) | bg | income": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "tilt": 1.6980086639870515, "ci_cluster": [ 0.6607510806899951, 2.413834097229814 ], "n_low": 22, "n_high": 24 }, "far (> 320 m from another witness) | bg | race": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "tilt": 1.707404216595173, "ci_cluster": [ 0.6669622640167138, 4.015266640249331 ], "n_low": 32, "n_high": 11 } }, "fhfa_reconciliation": { "income: B0 FHFA share / S5 share, parcel medians (audit's form)": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.3803596166683283, "ci": null }, "income: B0 same, condominium units kept (the audit's population)": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.332427419001582, "ci": null }, "income: B1 FHFA share / S5 share, log-mean (total)": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.3715041795769187, "ci": null }, "income: B1 land term: FHFA land / S5 land": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.3825768786943486, "ci": null }, "income: B1 denominator term: OPA total / FHFA property value": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 0.9919912597353092, "ci": null }, "income: B2 land sales test: S5 per parcel / sale": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.0290998269680316, "ci": [ 0.9590140579688552, 1.1105125925448298 ] }, "income: B2 land sales test: S5 smoothed to the tract / sale": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.053454410009517, "ci": [ 0.9582278148945488, 1.1494908728486009 ] }, "income: B2 land sales test: FHFA tract land $/sqft / sale": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.3428348851019394, "ci": [ 1.202695979261452, 1.493981473547092 ] }, "income: B3 house sales test: OPA total / sale": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.176233135553454, "ci": [ 1.1167369297375735, 1.236568777031097 ] }, "income: B3 house sales test: FHFA implied property value / sale": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.3070564768009334, "ci": [ 1.2062366385792374, 1.4159339986149977 ] }, "income: B4 FHFA share against the sales-implied share": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.027373268818938, "ci": [ 0.8888274070307101, 1.1811677773835856 ] }, "income: B4 S5 share of OPA total against the sales-implied share": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 0.8749114404805545, "ci": [ 0.8107870254764313, 0.9649484207883784 ] }, "income: B4 sales-predicted FHFA share / S5 share": { "comparison": "poorest / richest", "value": 1.1742597265097394, "ci": [ 1.0058878517187306, 1.3344866102766708 ] }, "race: B0 FHFA share / S5 share, parcel medians (audit's form)": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.4541780280850782, "ci": null }, "race: B0 same, condominium units kept (the audit's population)": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.4016433617230295, "ci": null }, "race: B1 FHFA share / S5 share, log-mean (total)": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.4275652243333732, "ci": null }, "race: B1 land term: FHFA land / S5 land": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.4454833145815087, "ci": null }, "race: B1 denominator term: OPA total / FHFA property value": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 0.9876040836532776, "ci": null }, "race: B2 land sales test: S5 per parcel / sale": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.1221820319598392, "ci": [ 0.9932623397922062, 1.2151309694433348 ] }, "race: B2 land sales test: S5 smoothed to the tract / sale": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 0.9900214868113696, "ci": [ 0.9184486176005168, 1.1055564780415266 ] }, "race: B2 land sales test: FHFA tract land $/sqft / sale": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.4700009396430778, "ci": [ 1.347639190745526, 1.6181613580562562 ] }, "race: B3 house sales test: OPA total / sale": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.1664789446768642, "ci": [ 1.1038606488214808, 1.2379422102502122 ] }, "race: B3 house sales test: FHFA implied property value / sale": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.2679871417347393, "ci": [ 1.1539844581450571, 1.414054907558094 ] }, "race: B4 FHFA share against the sales-implied share": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.15931849090517, "ci": [ 1.008417315721376, 1.3275226291085187 ] }, "race: B4 S5 share of OPA total against the sales-implied share": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 0.9620251073376244, "ci": [ 0.8423114063549787, 1.0590058028726814 ] }, "race: B4 sales-predicted FHFA share / S5 share": { "comparison": "most non-white / whitest", "value": 1.205081324866405, "ci": [ 1.0535667076675037, 1.4053631033040548 ] } } }, "homes_dollar_range": { "basis": "homes' aggregate change in $M (negative: homes pay less in total); the headline is S5, relevelled beyond the support edge by its held-out error in the lot's size band, with use-restricted bare tracts at OPA", "headline": -39.062959517012594, "axes": { "bare tracts beyond the support edge": { "relevelled": -39.06, "carry_opa": -36.95, "opa_relevelled": -39.31, "surface": -70.27, "reviewed": -42.39 }, "all lots beyond the support edge": { "relevelled": -39.062959517012594, "raw_surface_on_built": -77.51354319455933, "opa_relevelled": -67.80727515272021, "pool_aware": -42.84149744003582 }, "land surface": { "s0_opa": -79.98300205109524, "s2_k20": -65.86628838124037, "s3": -71.10907293160368, "s4_kolbe": -94.91746300150251, "s5": -39.062959517012594, "s6": -86.59454248862076, "e_gbm": -87.69583033829332, "s8": -66.47100744222188 }, "OPA's tilt removed from homes' totals": { "by_inc_q": -39.45410717701507, "by_min_q": -39.59605428282642 }, "S5's own error (5th to 95th percentile of draws)": { "raw p5": -46.67704182795412, "raw p95": -32.344788647389635, "net_of_noise_repeat_sales p5": -44.92462395278828, "net_of_noise_repeat_sales p95": -31.564766433366188, "net_of_noise_neighbour_pairs p5": -44.46370282002891, "net_of_noise_neighbour_pairs p95": -32.023288956332564 } }, "on_level_range": { "low": -67.80727515272021, "high": -31.564766433366188, "basis": "the headline, OPA relevelled on every lot beyond the edge, the pool-aware relevel, and every S5 error model's 5th to 95th percentile" }, "most_negative": { "musd": -94.91746300150251, "axis": "land surface", "variant": "s4_kolbe" }, "least_negative": { "musd": -31.564766433366188, "axis": "S5's own error (5th to 95th percentile of draws)", "variant": "net_of_noise_repeat_sales p95" } } } }